Germany will be hosting Italy on the fourth day of UEFA Nations League A, with the German team looking to secure their first win in group play while Italy hopes to solidify their place at the top of Group 3. With that said, it’s a good time to check out our Nations League odds series, which includes our Germany-Italy prediction and pick laid out below.


Germany has played three games in this group, recording three draws. They actually have four draws in a row, including a friendly with the Netherlands. However, if they want a chance of winning the group, this is a must-win game. The Germans will likely feel they were the best team in Group 3 due to the nature of their draws, but still need to prove it.

Italy drew against England and Germany and beat Hungary to top this group after three games. If they were to win here, it would be a great step towards winning the group.

Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Germany-Italy Nations League odds.

Nations League Odds: Germany-Italy Odds

Germany: (-135)

Italy: (+340)

Draw: (+250)

Over: 2.5 (-116)

Under: 2.5 (-120)

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Why Germany Could Win This Game

Germany have struggled on the international stage of late. While their qualifying campaign for the 2022 World Cup was a success, they've still crashed out of every major tournament they played since winning the 2014 World Cup. However, this German team is very talented and has what it takes to beat the Italians in a crucial game.

While the generation that won the 2014 World Cup is now much older, they are still on the team. Guys like Thomas Muller and Manuel Neuer might be older, but they are still valid contributors. Germany's has a talented younger generation, too, like Jamal Musiala, Serge Gnabry, Kai Havertz and Leon Goretzka.

Italy have an impressive roster as well, but Germany have a better one.

Another reason why Germany could win this game is the fact that any result but a win would likely mean a relegation battle with the rest of the group. They have just three points, with an away game versus England left to play. Playing at home, Germany face a must-win to both remain in this league and maintain the chance to win Group 3.

Why Italy Could Win This Game 

Since winning the UEFA EURO 2020 tournament, Italy have entered into a crisis of some sort. They did not qualify for the 2022 World Cup and also lost to Argentina in the Finalissima. Those results have left their fans frustrated and disappointed, sentiments that could be alleviated by Italy winning this match and holding onto first place in Group 3.

Another huge reason why they could win this game is their mentality.

Germany likely have the better of the two rosters, but Italy usually take these kinds of games very seriously. The Italian players hold each other accountable and play with a lot of passion, even in games that are not especially significant. The fact that this game could carry heavy implications for the rest of Nations League play will no doubt amplify the Italians' passion and intensity even further, a stark contrast from a German team that could take it less seriously.

Italy are playing away from home, but this could be a huge game for their young team. Thus, they could win this game based on the fact that this could be a competition or campaign that opens their tally with the national team in a great way. The last generation was sent off with an international trophy, so it would only be right that this new generation gets into it with an international title as well.

Final Germany-Italy Prediction and Pick 

Italy are the group leaders, but Germany would be there if they were a bit more careful against England. The first game between these countries was closely contested, but this one could shake out much differently. Germany play better at home and their spot in this league is at least somewhat at risk.

Our final Germany-Italy prediction is a Germany win at Borussia-Park in Mönchengladbach, Germany.

Final Germany-Italy Pick: Germany (-135)