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NBA Finals odds: Suns vs. Bucks Game 4 prediction, odds, pick, and more

Suns Bucks Game 4 prediction, Suns Bucks Game 4 odds, Suns Bucks Game 4 pick, NBA Finals odds

The Milwaukee Bucks aim to continue their dominant run on their home floor in the postseason in the fourth game of the NBA Finals on Wednesday night. It’s time to continue our NBA Finals odds series and make a Suns-Bucks Game 4 prediction and pick.

The Bucks hold an overall record of 13-7 in the postseason and are 11-9 against the spread. Milwaukee is now 8-1 on their home floor after trouncing the Suns in Game 3.

The Suns stand at 14-5 overall and 13-6 against the spread in the postseason. Phoenix is 6-3 away from its home arena in its playoff run.

Here’s how sportsbooks have set the Suns-Bucks Game 4 odds.

NBA Finals Odds: Suns-Bucks Game 4 Odds

Milwaukee Bucks -4 (-110)

Phoenix Suns +4 (-110)

Over 220 Points (-110)

Under 220 Points (-110)

*Watch Game 4 of the NBA Finals LIVE with fuboTV (click for free trial)*

Why The Bucks Could Cover The Spread

Milwaukee has been nearly unbeatable on their home floor this postseason. Their one loss in Fiserv Forum came in the Eastern Conference Finals due to a legendary Trae Young performance in which he dropped 48 points on the Bucks.

It’s seemed like a 50 piece or close to it is what it’s going to take to topple the Bucks at home. In their eight home wins, Milwaukee’s average margin of victory is 16.0 points and six of these have been double digit victories. The point is, when the Bucks win at home, they win big.

So how has Milwaukee looked like a different team in Wisconsin? It’s been a combination of their role players stepping up with the backing of the home crowd and a motivated defensive effort.

The Buck’s defense has looked unbreakable in Fiserv. Throughout the entire postseason, an opposing team has broken 110 points only ONCE in Milwaukee. The one occasion was the aforementioned Trae Young game.

Giannis and company have held opponents to double-digit scoring in five out of nine home games so far. On the road, they’ve held an opponent to this mark only once. It seems like the Bucks transform from a mediocre defensive team to an unbreakable one with their home crowd hyping them on.

On the other end of the floor, Milwaukee has found it much easier to run up the numbers in friendly territory. Jrue Holiday in particular has looked like a different player in front of the Bucks faithful.

In his last five road games, Holiday is shooting 34.8% from the field, 24.1% from three, and averaging 15.4 points. On the other hand, in his last five home games, he’s shooting 51.6% from the field, 38.6% from three, and averaging 24.4 points.

Holiday’s splits might be the most dramatic, but there are several Bucks players who see an improvement in Fiserv; P.J. Tucker and Brook Lopez, and Bobby Portis have all had their highest-scoring postseason performances at home.

Giannis has, of course, been fantastic. There are few players in the NBA capable of doing what he accomplished in these last two games. But as we saw in Game 2, you can’t beat this Suns team by yourself. The Bucks’ role players are the difference makers, and they have a history of stepping up in Milwaukee so far this postseason.

Why The Suns Could Cover The Spread

Just when we thought the Suns might not lose another game all season, they were absolutely pummeled in Game 3 to bring Chris Paul and company back down to earth.

Previous to the Game 3 loss, Phoenix had won ten of its last 12 postseason matchups, including four out of five wins on the road. Just as Milwaukee has been an excellent home team, the Suns have been nearly as good of a road team.

Phoenix’s depth has traveled well, and their role players haven’t seen a significant downward trend when they play away from the desert. The Game 3 loss came due to several players that have performed so well in the postseason for the Suns going ice cold.

Devin Booker and Cam Payne had their worst shooting nights of the postseason when attempting at least ten shots. Mikal Bridges had his lowest point output of the playoffs, and Chris Paul had his lowest scoring night since Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals.

Milwaukee’s defense has been good, but not THIS good. The odds of multiple key Suns all having off nights again, or of Devin Booker shooting 20% from the field, are both close to zero.

D-Book has been the Suns’ go-to scorer all playoffs, averaging 26.3 points a game on 43.5% shooting and 90.3% shooting from the free throw line. Chris Paul knows it’s important to get the young star going, and I expect him to feed Book only to get him a rhythm he never found in Game 3.

On the defensive end, the Suns are still allowing the least points per game of any playoff team (103.3), the lowest field goal percentage (43.5%), and the third least assists per game (20.5). Combine this with the fact that possessions should be limited with CP3 running the show and the clock, and it’d be surprising to see the Bucks reach 120 points again.

Final Suns-Bucks Game 4 Prediction & Pick

The Suns were annihilated by Giannis’ transition possessions in Game 3. Phoenix simply did not do enough to slow the game down, but I doubt Monty Williams and Chris Paul swing and miss when given a second opportunity tonight.  In a game both teams are desperate to win, both should take their time in getting the best scoring opportunities possible, and Paul should control tempo and grind this thing to a halt. Combine that with the fact that the Bucks defense has been clamping teams left and right in Fiserv, and I don’t see either team scoring anything more than 110 points. I think this game will be far more competitive, but my money is on the total tonight as the safer bet.