There is no Victor Wembanyama in the 2024 NBA Draft. Odds are against any player in the running to be the top overall pick reaching the peaks of recent No. 1 selections like Paolo Banchero, Anthony Edwards and Zion Williamson. Cade Cunningham's largely overlooked breakout third season makes him a safe bet to be more valuable than whoever hears their name called first at Barclays Center on June 26th.
Just because there's definitely no generational prospect or likely even a foundational star in this year's draft class hardly means there isn't a player available who could drastically alter a team's fortunes going forward. As the playoffs fast approach and the offseason looms, a clear-cut betting favorite has emerged to be the No. 1 pick in the 2024 NBA Draft.
Perth Wildcats big man Alexandre Sarr currently owns -300 odds to come off the board first in late June, per BetOnline. No other 2024 draft prospect has better than +200 odds, the line on fellow Frenchman Zacharie Risacher, a wing who plays for JL Bourg in France.
Kentucky guard Reed Sheppard, Serbian guard Nikola Topic and UConn center Donovan Clingan are the only other players with odds to be chosen first at +1000 or better. Rob Dillingham, Sheppard's backcourt partner with the Wildcats, G League Ignite forward Matas Buzelis and Colorado wing Cody Williams round out BetOnline top-eight of the prospects most likely to be chosen with the No. 1 pick.
Alexandre Sarr NBA comparisons, fit in the modern game
Standing 7'1 and approximately 220 pounds with a 7'5 wingspan, Sarr boasts a mouth-watering physical profile for bigs in the modern NBA. He moves like a player seven or eight inches shorter, showing off rare all-around dexterity, explosive leaping ability and the lateral movement needed to switch onto guards defensively without negative recourse. The 18-year-old still needs to get stronger and add weight, but that physical development should come down the line.
The consensus top defender in this year's draft class, Sarr's ceiling will ultimately depend on his role on the other side of the ball. Jaren Jackson Jr. and Evan Mobley are common comparisons due to Sarr's enviable blend of size and functional athleticism defensively. He'll be an impact defender the moment he gets an early grasp of NBA concepts, shutting off the rim and keeping the ball in front of him in primary and help roles.
But what could truly separate Sarr from a suped-up seven-foot defender like Mobley—and certainly Nic Claxton, another physical peer—is whether his skill catches up to his tools. Jackson is a more versatile offensive weapon than Mobley and Claxton at this point, able to knock down open threes, take his man off the bounce and score with his back to the basket. In time, it wouldn't be shocking if Sarr becomes that type of versatile secondary scoring option, potential progress that would more than justify his selection at No. 1 overall given what he's set to provide defensively.
But the jury is still out on Jackson's ability to play center full-time, a positional shift that would further unlock the Memphis Grizzlies' subpar halfcourt offense. The same questions about defensive rebounding and overall physicality Jackson has yet to answer also apply to Sarr.
If he's ultimately better suited at power forward than center, Sarr's jumper better come around. He shot just 29.8% from three this season with Perth in the NBL, struggles that remind of Mobley's slow development as a long-range shooter since he entered the league in 2021. The Cleveland Cavaliers big man is still a clear-cut positive due to his defensive prowess, but Mobley's growth as a jump-shooter, ball handler and finisher has recently relegated JB Bickerstaff to separate him from starting center Jarrett Allen in high-leverage situations of time and score.
No prospect in the 2024 draft is without their warts. Sarr would be a shoo-in top pick if he stretched the floor like Chet Holmgren or had the advanced ball skills of Wembanyama, hinting at inevitable offensive strides to come. As is, he projects more as a top-tier role player than guaranteed future star, leaving the door open for other prospects to be taken first overall depending on the positional needs and stylistic preferences of whichever NBA bottom-dweller wins the draft lottery.
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