The Memphis Grizzlies (12-8) face the Minnesota Timberwolves (10-11) on Wednesday night. Tipoff is scheduled for 8:10 pm ET. Below we continue our NBA odds series with a Grizzlies-Timberwolves prediction and pick.
Memphis has won two consecutive games and sits in fourth place in the Western Conference. The Grizzlies are 8-11-1 against the spread while 53% of their games have gone over. Minnesota, meanwhile, is in the midst of a three-game skid that has dropped them to tenth in the West. The Timberwolves are 7-14 against the spread while 57% of their games have gone under. This will be the second of four meetings between the two teams. Memphis took the first two weeks ago 114-103.
Here are the Grizzlies-Timberwolves NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel
NBA Odds: Grizzlies-Timberwolves Odds
Memphis Grizzlies: -2.5 (-110)
Minnesota Timberwolves: +2.5 (-110)
Over: 231 (-110)
Under: 231 (-110)
Why The Grizzlies Could Cover The Spread
Memphis hasn't been quite the regular season juggernaut of 2021, but they aren't far off. The Grizzlies feature an above-average offense that ranks ninth in scoring and eighth in offensive efficiency. Their defense has held them back somewhat given a middle-of-the-pack 17th-ranked defensive efficiency and 18th-ranked scoring defense. Where Memphis has truly made its mark has been on the glass. The Grizzlies rank second in both rebound differential and rebound rate. They will notably be without Desmond Bane again tonight.
Memphis can cover tonight first and foremost because of their advantage at the point guard spot. Star Ja Morant has put together a formidable encore to his breakout 2021-22 campaign. Morant averages 28.5 PPG, 6.4 RPG, and APG while maintaining solid shooting percentages (47.2% from the field and 37% from three). He recorded a near triple-double in their last matchup with Minnesota when he went for 28 points, 10 rebounds, and eight assists. The Wolves don't have anyone on the perimeter who can match up with Morant and he should be in for another big night.
While Morant is the catalyst, perhaps the biggest reason Memphis can cover the spread tonight is the return of forward Jaren Jackson Jr. The big man has only recently returned from off-season surgery. He's been on a minutes restriction but most recently played 30 minutes for the first time this season. Jackson Jr. scored at least 20 points in four of his five games and is a matchup nightmare against Minnesota. His ability to stretch the floor and hit threes could be a major X-factor against Minnesota's rim protector Rudy Gobert. That matchup is certainly worth keeping in mind when making a Grizzlies Timberwolves prediction.
Why The Timberwolves Could Cover The Spread
Minnesota has yet to live up to lofty preseason expectations following a busy offseason. Despite the addition of former defensive player of the year Rudy Gobert, the Timberwolves have largely struggled because of their defense. They rank 23rd in points allowed and 18th in defensive efficiency. Minnesota has been above average on offense where they rank 12th in scoring and 19th in efficiency. They've been a surprisingly poor rebounding team ranking 23rd in rebound rate and 18th in differential. The Timberwolves will be without star Karl-Anthony Towns.
Although the loss of KAT will hurt, it could be a blessing in disguise for a team that has struggled with spacing. Gobert and Towns' lineups have a negative NET rating this season and perhaps surrounding Gobert with more wings is just the recipe Minnesota needs to get rolling again. For his credit, Gobert has statistically been solid once again this year. His 12.4 RPG ranks second in the league and he's continued to be a strong shot blocker (1.4 BPG) and efficient scorer around the rim (13.8 PPG on 64% shooting). Gobert has been especially active in recent games. In their last four games, Gobert has eclipsed 17 points three times. Look for him to be more involved in the game plan tonight and going forward.
If there is anyone who is going to benefit from KAT's absence tonight, it will be wing Anthony Edwards. Edwards had a breakout year last season but hasn't shown much improvement this year. Edwards averages 22.6 PPG as the go-to scorer for Minnesota and has been relatively efficient shooting 45.7% from the field. After averaging 21.3 PPG last season, expectations were that Edwards would take a much bigger leap in year three. That being said, he's in a good position to begin to explode with KAT out and tonight gets a Grizzlies team he torched for 28 points on 63% shooting earlier this season.
Final Grizzlies-Timberwolves Prediction & Pick
Without KAT, the Timberwolves will struggle to score and rebound more than they already have. Even with expanded spacing around Gobert Memphis' bigs should pose enough of a threat to give them an edge. Take the better team and don't worry about the points.
Final Grizzlies-Timberwolves Prediction & Pick: Memphis Grizzlies -2.5 (-110)
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