The Atlanta Hawks will take on the Miami Heat on Friday night. It's time to continue our NBA odds series and make a Hawks-Heat prediction and pick.
The Hawks are the only team that really has something at stake here. Atlanta is currently 42-38, a record that has them tied with the Brooklyn Nets for the eighth seed. The Nets own the tiebreaker, so the Hawks need to win in order to break the tie and move into the eighth seed. The Heat, on the other hand, have nothing to play for. Miami has locked up the first seed in the Eastern Conference, making this game essentially meaningless. Regardless, the Heat are set to deploy their starters in what should be an entertaining game. Let's cut to the chase and get to the pick.
Here are the Hawks-Heat NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NBA Odds: Hawks-Heat Odds
Atlanta Hawks: -2 (-110)
Miami Heat: +2 (-110)
Over: 230.5 (-110)
Under: 230.5 (-110)
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Why The Hawks Could Cover The Spread
The Atlanta offense should have a good game here. Superstar point guard Tre Young has led the Hawks to one of the best offenses in the NBA, as Atlanta averages nearly 114 points per game. Head coach Nate McMillan's squad also shoots an incredible 47% from the field, the third-best number in the league. While the Heat are one of the league's better defenses, the Hawks have had success against them this season. These teams have played each other three times, and Atlanta scored 118 points in one meeting and 110 in another. This is clearly a matchup the Hawks are comfortable with.
The Heat won't be playing this game with their full roster. Starting power forward PJ Tucker is dealing with a long-term calf injury, and key backups Gabe Vincent, Caleb Martin, and Dewayne Dedmon are all questionable for this game. It's unlikely that all of them play, leaving the Heat thin off of the bench. Another factor in this game is the fact that the Heat already locked up the first seed in the conference. Their starters likely won't see their regular workload, and that could lead to an Atlanta cover.
Why The Heat Could Cover The Spread
The Hawks won't be at full strength in this game either. Starting power forward John Collins is dealing with long-term injuries to his foot and his fingers, so he obviously won't play tonight. Neither will backup shooting guard Lou Williams, as he's dealing with a back injury. That means that Tre Young will be counted on to generate the majority of the scoring once again, a tactic that may not work against a Heat defense that excels at stopping prolific scorers.
Unsurprisingly, Miami has been one of the best teams in the NBA at covering the spread. The Heat have earned a 45-34-1 record against the spread on the season, the fifth-best record in the league in that category. The Hawks haven't been nearly as good at covering, as they're 36-44 ATS. Atlanta has also gone 13-26 against the spread on the road
Final Hawks-Heat Prediction & Pick
Assuming the Heat play their starters for their normal workloads, Miami should cover with ease in this one. Lock in the Heat here and don't look back.
Final Hawks-Heat Prediction & Pick: Miami Heat: +2 (-110)
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