The Miami Heat (11-12) visit the Memphis Grizzlies (14-9) on Monday. Action tips off at 8:10 pm ET. Below we continue our NBA odds series with a Heat-Grizzlies prediction and pick.
Miami finds themselves winners of four of their last five games and sits in ninth place in the Eastern Conference. The Heat are 8-14-1 against the spread while 57% of their games have gone over. Memphis, meanwhile, has also won four of their last five and sits in fourth place in the Western Conference. The Grizzlies are 10-12-1 against the spread while 55% of their games have gone over. This will be the first of two meetings between the teams this season. Last year the teams split the two-game series, 1-1.
Here are the Heat-Grizzlies NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel
NBA Odds: Heat-Grizzlies Odds
Miami Heat: -4.5 (-112)
Memphis Grizzlies: +4.5 (-112)
Over: 218.5 (-110)
Under: 218.5 (-110)
Why The Heat Could Cover The Spread
Miami started slowly but has since picked up their play on both sides of the ball. The Heat is a middling offensive team that ranks 26th in scoring and 24th in offensive efficiency. Their strength lies on the defensive end of the court where they rank ninth in points allowed and eighth in efficiency. Miami has struggled on the glass, ranking 26th in rebound differential and 23rd in rebound rate.
Miami appears to have put their early season struggles behind them. They’ve won four of their last five games and notably split a crucial two-game set with the Celtics last week. The story for Miami lately has been the play of center Bam Adebayo. Bam has been Miami’s most consistent player throughout the season but has really picked things up as of late. Adebayo averages 21 PPG, 9.1 RPG, and 3.3 APG while playing in nearly every game. He’s shooting a solid 53% from the field and is nearly automatic from the free-throw line. Bam shoots 87% from the line on 5.4 attempts per game. He’s seen a huge uptick in scoring recently, averaging 27.2 PPG over their last five games. During that span, Bam is shooting 56% from the field.
While Bam has been the catalyst lately, it has been Miami’s guards which have been most crucial to their success. The Heat have a trio of talented guards in Tyler Herro (18.9 PPG), Max Strus (15.1 PPG), and Kyle Lowry (14.8 PPG). Herro and Lowry have served as the team’s primary distributors with both averaging over four assists per game. While the trio hasn’t shot as well as one would expect, they’re all lethal threats from beyond the arc. All three average over two three-pointers per game, with each shooting over 35% from three.
Why The Grizzlies Could Cover The Spread
Memphis has continued its regular season success from last year despite a number of key injuries. The Grizzlies are a solid all-around team. They’re home to a top-ten offense that ranks eighth in scoring and ninth in efficiency. Memphis is an average defensive unit, placing 17th in points allowed and 14th in efficiency. They’ve been absolutely dominant on the glass, however, where they rank first in both rebound differential and rebound rate. A number of key players will miss tonight’s game for Memphis including Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr., John Konchar, and Desmond Bane.
In the absence of so many of their core players, Memphis will have to rely on their role players to step up and shoulder the scoring load tonight. Forward Dillon Brooks projects to be the biggest beneficiary as he is the only active player averaging over 10 points per game. For the season, Brooks averages 17.5 PPG while also chipping in 3.8 RPG and 3.0 APG. Brooks has struggled to shoot the ball this season, however, as he’s shot just 40% from the field and 35% from three. That being said, he’s played well of late. Over his last five games, Brooks is averaging 19.8 PPG while shooting 39% from beyond the arc. He’s scored 30+ points in three of his last five games when Morant has been sidelined – something to keep in mind when making a Heat-Grizzlies prediction.
If Memphis is going to cover without their star players, they’re going to need to contain Miami’s big man Bam Adebayo. That task will largely fall to center Steven Adams. Adams doesn’t score much these days but remains an excellent rebounder and rim protector. For the season Adams averages 11.2 RPG and 1.0 BPG.
Final Heat-Grizzlies Prediction & Pick
Both teams have played well as of late with Miami looking especially impressive thanks to the return of Jimmy Butler. With Memphis missing a number of key contributors, look for Miami to roll despite being heavy road favorites.
Final Heat-Grizzlies Prediction & Pick: Miami Heat -4.5 (-112)