The Miami Heat (14-15) visit the Houston Rockets (9-18) on Thursday night. Action tips off at 8:10 pm ET. Below we continue our NBA odds series with a Heat-Rockets prediction and pick.
Miami has won three of their last four games to propel them to eighth place in the Eastern Conference. The Heat are 9-19-1 against the spread while 52% of their games have gone over. Houston has also won three of their last four games but still sits in 14th place in the Western Conference. The Rockets are 14-12-1 against the spread while 52% of their games have gone under. This will be the first of two meetings between the teams. Last season, Miami took both games by double digits.
Here are the Heat-Rockets NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel
NBA Odds: Heat-Rockets Odds
Miami Heat: -3.5 (-114)
Houston Rockets: +3.5 (-106)
Over: 218 (-110)
Under: 218 (-110)
Why The Heat Could Cover The Spread
Miami has a quick turnaround tonight after squeezing out a two-point win over Oklahoma City last night. The Heat haven't played to their usual standards but are still firmly in the playoff picture. That's no thanks to their offense, however, as they rank just 29th in scoring and 27th in offensive rating. Miami's success can be attributed to its defense which ranks fifth in points allowed and seventh in defensive rating. They don't do themselves any favors on the glass, ranking 24th in rebound differential and in rebound rate.
The Heat are expected to get Jimmy Butler back tonight after the veteran sat out last night's game. Butler's return to the lineup will be a welcome addition to a weak Miami offense. For the season, Butler averages 21.7 PPG, 6.7 RPG, and 5.9 APG. His 1.7 SPG would rank in the top ten among qualified players. Jimmy Buckets has been remarkably efficient as well, shooting 52% from the field, 37% from three, and 84% from the line. Although he is not immune to the effects of Father Time, Butler remains an elite, top-end player in the league. Houston is horrendous on defense and doesn't have anyone with the size and strength to contain Butler. The last time Butler visited Houston he dropped 37 points in an eventual Miami victory. While it may be farfetched to expect that kind of an outing, it certainly isn't out of the question.
Speaking of players who tore up the Rockets last season, Tyler Herro could be in for a similarly big night in this matchup. While Butler dominated the first game with Houston, Herro had his time in the spotlight after a 31-point performance in the second meeting. Like Butler, Herro could be in for a repeat performance tonight especially considering his recent performances. Herro averages 20.2 PPG on 45% shooting for the season. He is coming off one of his best games of the season last night where he scored 35 points in their narrow win over the Thunder. Houston is a similar defensive team to Oklahoma City – setting the combo guard up for a huge performance tonight.
Why The Rockets Could Cover The Spread
Houston carries a five-game home win streak into tonight's matchup and will be eager to add Miami to their list of defeated playoff teams. The Rockets feature a poor offense that ranks 25th in scoring and 26th in offensive rating. They aren't much better defensively, ranking 21st in points allowed and 26th in defensive rating. Houston excels on the glass, however. The Rockets rank third in both rebound differential and rebound rate.
Despite Houston's poor record and underlying metrics, they've played their best basketball of the season of late – notably picking up consecutive wins over the Bucks and Suns. Second-year phenom Jalen Green led the charge in both victories, as he's done all year long. Green leads the team with 21.8 PPG and is coming off 26 and 30-point outings. His success has a major correlation with the team's chances to win. In Houston's nine wins this season Green has averaged 27.4 PPG on 50% shooting. In their 18 losses, those numbers dip down to 18.9 PPG on 38% shooting. He has been much better at home, however, where he averages 25.3 PPG. If Green plays well, the Rockets have a great chance not just to cover the spread, but to win outright.
While Green will be responsible for a majority of the scoring load, center Alperen Sengun could quietly be the determining factor on whether Houston covers or not. The 6'11” big averages 14.4 PPG but it's his work on the glass which is most relevant tonight. Sengun averages 10.7 RPG at home and is coming off a 16-rebound performance against Phoenix. Miami is one of the worst rebounding teams in the league – setting Sengun up for a potentially game-altering performance.
Final Heat-Rockets Prediction & Pick
While Miami will be playing in the second game of a back-to-back, they should get Jimmy Butler back fresh. If that's the case, I like the Heat to get back on track and handle an inferior Rockets team.
Final Heat-Rockets Prediction & Pick: Miami Heat -3.5 (-114)
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