The 2020-21 season is in full swing, and we continue our NBA odds series by making a Lakers-Kings prediction and pick for their matchup.
A banged-up Los Angeles Lakers squad is heading roughly 6 hours north of their home court this evening, as they take on the Sacramento Kings in the second half of a back-to-back.
As of Wednesday morning, nine players are on the injury report, headlined by four-time MVP LeBron James, who will miss his first game of the 2020-21 season for rest.
Both teams are going through a bit of a rough patch and could use a win, as the squads have only combined for three wins over their last 7 games.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the opening Lakers-Kings odds.
NBA Odds: Lakers-Kings Odds
Los Angeles Lakers +4 (-110)
Sacramento Kings -4 (-110)
Over 225.5 Points (-110)
Under 225.5 Points (-110)
Why The Lakers Could Cover The Spread
This Lakers squad has been struggling without All-Star big man Anthony Davis, losing two of their last seven games. This skid has sunk them to 15-16 against the spread (ATS), with Eastern Conference cellar dwellers like the Detroit Pistons and the Cleveland Cavaliers being more profitable for bettors this season.
As bad as the Lakers have been ATS, the Kings have been even worse. After losing 10 of their last 11 games outright, Sacramento has fallen to 13-17 against the spread, the fifth-worst mark in the NBA.
With Davis, James and Marc Gasol out and key role players in Kyle Kuzma and Alex Caruso being listed as day-to-day, this gives Lakers farther down of the depth chart a chance to prove their worth to the defending champs.
After finishing in the Top 2 in Sixth Man of the Year voting this season, Montrez Harrell and Dennis Schroder have been a bit underwhelming this season, as both have seen seen significant drop-offs in almost every statistical category from this year to last.
This drop off can be attributed to both players seeing their usage rates drop by more than 5 percent, and while Schroder did recently return from a nagging Achilles injury, neither guy has been able to establish a rhythm with their new teammates in their decreased roles.
Games like this are why the Lakers picked up the duo this off-season, as with the stars out, both guys have the ability to take over a game for stretches off the bench and can hopefully use matchups with a lengthy injury report like this one to establish more chemistry with their fellow role players.
While Harrell hasn't quite gotten his footing with the Lakers, Markieff Morris has stepped up as of late, scoring 12 points or more in 3 of the last four games while shooting 50 percent from the field and providing the Lakers with a veteran scoring presence.
With as bad as the season has been so far for the Lakers by their standards, one of the lone bright spots is Talen Horton-Tucker, who burst onto the scene after exceling in spurts in the NBA bubble this Summer.
Horton-Tucker has proven this season that his play in the bubble has not been a fluke, as with only a slight uptick in usage rate and minutes per game(19.7 % usage rate in 13.5 mpg last season to 20.3 % usage rate in 17.4 mpg), Horton-Tucker has seen significant jumps in scoring and assisting, and has seen his rebounds per game double from last year.
If these four can pick up the slack in scoring and playmaking with James out, they can cover the spread and perhaps even win the game outright.
Why The Kings Could Cover The Spread
Kings head coach Luke Walton has been on the hot seat for a few weeks now, and getting a win against a depleted Lakers squad may give him an extra week of job security.
The Kings will be missing a key players of their own tonight, as February's Western Conference Rookie of the Month Tyrese Haliburton and backup big man Hassan Whiteside are listed as out, while sharpshooting starting guard Buddy Hield may miss the game with a bum ankle.
Tonight will be a big test for De'Aaron Fox, who has cooled off a smidge since his hot start in February.
If this game is close down the stretch, which is expected with a spread being less than 5 points, the Kings have an advantage with Fox, who ranks third in the league in clutch shooting per inpredictable.
Even if Fox is doubled down the stretch of games, he will have guys on the floor around him who can hit a three.
While Hield being questionable to play taking away their second option, Harrison Barnes (40.3 percent) and Marvin Bagley Jr. (37.5 percent) can both hit a big three when called upon and pick up the slack in scoring if Fox struggles to get a good rhythm going.
The Kings will need to get stops if they want to cover the spread tonight, which they have struggled to do all season with a league-worst 118.7 defensive rating.
While the Kings have struggled on the defensive end this season, it's not because of Richaun Holmes, who ranks just outside the top 10 in most advanced rim protecting stats (per NBA.com), holding opponents to 54.3 percent on shots from 6 feet away or less.
If the Kings can get stops down the stretch, they should have the scoring advantage late, which can help them cover the spread against an injured Lakers squad.
Final Lakers-Kings Prediction & Pick
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lpbw2LVB_kE
I'm tempted to take the Kings in this one, as this Sacramento squad is starving for wins and the Lakers could possibly be missing five of their best nine players.
Despite all those Laker injuries, Los Angeles is still an elite defensive squad, as even without four-time All-Defensive center Anthony Davis, the Lakers still have a 106.1 defensive rating, which is a mark that still ranks first in the league.
With those elite defensive numbers and the Kings missing a few of their best playmakers, there is a lot of value in taking in the under in this one.
Barring De'Aaron Fox going off in this one, which can never ruled out at this point in his career, Lakers +4 and the under feel like safe plays here.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION & PICK FOR LAKERS-KINGS: SAC 110, LAL 107 (LA +4, Under 225)
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