The Oklahoma City Thunder take on the Denver Nuggets. Check out our NBA odds series, which includes our Thunder-Nuggets prediction and pick.
The Denver Nuggets embody the wackiness of the first weeks of an NBA season. Every NBA season is usually volatile and weird in the opening weeks. Teams are settling into their seasons, gaining an understanding of how to play together and form a cohesive bond on the court. Athletes are trying to find a groove after offseason camp and a few preseason games. That's not enough to establish total comfort and instinctual clarity within an offensive system and in a set of relationships with teammates, in many cases new teammates. It's natural for this choppy, ragged, uneven reality to emerge in an NBA October.
The Nuggets are the portrait of this instability.
Denver got blown out by the downscaled Utah Jazz in its season opener. The Nuggets were listless, failing to match the energy of the Jazz. So what if Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell are no longer in Salt Lake City? The Jazz players are hungry, and they devoured a Denver omelette on Wednesday night. The Nuggets then flew to the Bay Area and defeated the defending champion Golden State Warriors on Friday night, scoring 128 points and showing what they are capable of.
You might look at this matchup and think the Nuggets should easily win, but they did lose at home to the Thunder last season, and by 12 points at that. The Nuggets are not a dependable team — not yet. They need to establish a new identity as a dependable team. We will see if they can.
The Oklahoma City Thunder won't have top draft pick Chet Holmgren this season. They will once again be expected to finish at or near the very bottom of the NBA. However, they put up a really good fight against the Minnesota Timberwolves in their season opener on Wednesday. They were down by 13 points at halftime but stormed back to take an 87-81 lead late in the third quarter. They didn't win, but they made the Timberwolves sweat out a very close win. It was an encouraging performance for a team which — without Holmgren — is limited in terms of its ceiling. The floor, however, might be higher than many people thought after that game against the T-Wolves, who are expected to be a Western Conference contender.
Here are the Thunder-Nuggets NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel:
NBA Odds: Thunder-Nuggets Odds
Oklahoma City Thunder: +8.5 (-112)
Denver Nuggets: -8.5 (-108)
Over: 226 (-110)
Under: 226 (-110)
Why The Thunder Could Cover The Spread
The Thunder have had two full days to rest while the Nuggets are not only coming off a Friday game, but a draining one against the NBA champion Warriors. Denver really had to reach deep to fend off Golden State late in the Pacific time zone. The Nuggets have had to cross a time zone, get back to Denver Saturday morning, and turn around for this game. It's a classic back-to-back travel situation in which the Thunder are going to be a lot fresher and more rested. That can make the difference in a game where the spread — though not huge — is almost 10 points. OKC can stay within eight points here.
Why The Nuggets Could Cover The Spread
The Nuggets will be energized by the home crowd in a season-opening game. They will be in a good frame of mind due to their win over the Warriors. They also have Nikola Jokic, and Oklahoma City does not. Denver has a huge frontcourt advantage in this game.
Final Thunder-Nuggets Prediction & Pick
Denver probably won't be sharp or fresh after its late night win in San Francisco on Friday. The quick turnaround should limit what Denver does, enabling OKC to cover.
Final Thunder-Nuggets Prediction & Pick: Thunder +8.5
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