The Golden State Warriors (11-10) face the Dallas Mavericks (9-10) on Tuesday. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:30 pm ET. Below we continue our NBA odds series with a Warriors-Mavericks prediction and pick.
Golden State finds themselves winners of three straight games and sits in ninth in the Western Conference. The Warriors are 9-12 against the spread while 60% of their games have gone over. Dallas will look to snap a four-game losing streak tonight. They sit in 11th place in the West. The Mavericks are 4-14-1 against the spread while 58% of their games have gone over. This will be the first of three meetings between the teams this season. Dallas took three of four games last year.
Here are the Warriors-Mavericks NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel
NBA Odds: Warriors-Mavericks Odds
Golden State Warriors: -1.5 (-112)
Dallas Mavericks: +1.5 (-108)
Over: 228 (-110)
Under: 228 (-110)
Why The Warriors Could Cover The Spread
Golden State suffered a rocky start to the season but has looked much better in recent games. Despite a record just a hair shy of .500, the Warriors' underlying numbers support the idea they're a top-flight team in the league. Golden State ranks third in scoring and ninth in offensive efficiency. Although much improved lately, their defense still holds them back. The Warriors are 27th in points allowed and 22nd in defensive efficiency. They are also a poor rebounding team – ranking 25th in rebounding differential and 28th in rebound rate.
The Warriors have been carried by their elite offense and that starts with point guard Steph Curry. Steph is second in the league in scoring (31.4 PPG) while also contributing solid periphery stats. Curry ranks second on the Warriors in rebounding (6.8 RPG), assists (7.1 APG), and steals (1.2 SPG). Steph is a lights-out shooter with a 52.2 FG% and 44.1 3P%. He finds himself firmly in the MVP conversation thanks to the way he's carried Golden state through their early-season struggles. The Warriors have won five straight games in which Curry has played – something to keep in mind when making a Warriors-Mavericks prediction.
Curry hasn't been the only contributor for the defending champs, however. Golden State has three other players averaging more than 16 points per game. Forward Andrew Wiggins has been arguably the most consistent non-Curry contributor. The lengthy forward is second on the team in scoring (19.1 PPG) while also contributing on the glass (5.5 RPG) and defensively (1.5 SPG and .8 BPG). Wiggins has been excellent of late – averaging 22 points on 53% shooting over his last five games.
If Golden State is going to cover against a stingy Mavericks defense, it'll be thanks to a strong performance from either of their streaky guards. Klay Thompson (17.7 PPG) and Jordan Poole (16.2 PPG) rank third and fourth in scoring but both have struggled with efficiency. Both players shoot under 42% from the field. Thompson, however, has found his stroke from outside at least. He averages nearly four three-pointers made per game on 40% shooting.
Why The Mavericks Could Cover The Spread
While Golden State has been carried by their elite offense, Dallas plays a contrasting style. The Mavericks rank fourth in points allowed and 12th in defensive efficiency. They've struggled to score the ball, however, ranking 27th in scoring and tenth in offensive efficiency. Dallas has done themselves no favors on the glass where they rank 28th in rebounding differential and 26th in rebound rate.
Dallas' offensive game plan is simple: get the ball to Luka and let him make something happen. Thus far, that plan has yielded solid results – at least from Luka's stat line. Doncic leads the league in scoring with 33.1 PPG. He also leads the Mavericks in rebounding (8.7 RPG), assists (8.4 APG), and steals (1.7 SPG). While Luka has struggled from beyond the arc (30.7 3P%) he's been otherwise efficient from the field (50.4 FG%). Luka has been quiet by his standards of late – surpassing 30 points just once over Dallas' four-game skid.
While Luka could single-handily carry Dallas to a win tonight, the Mavericks' hopes of covering largely lie on the shoulders of big man Christian Wood. Wood is second on the team in scoring (17.1 PPG) and rebounding (7.6 RPG) despite coming off the bench and averaging just 25.5 minutes per game. Wood has been uber-efficient, however, shooting nearly 57% from the field and 44% from three. The undersized center has been inconsistent although that could be blamed on his lack of consistent playing time. He has faired well against the Warriors in the past – averaging 16.4 PPG over the last four seasons against Golden State.
Final Warriors-Mavericks Prediction & Pick
Golden State has started the click in recent games and, despite Dallas' strong defense, should have no problem covering in a crucial Western Conference matchup.
Final Warriors-Mavericks Prediction & Pick: Golden State Warriors -1.5 (-112)
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