Rarely do things in the NBA end on a high note. Father Time, the age-old enemy of us all, is undefeated, and at some point, all good things must come to a close. But in the Golden State Warriors' case, they're at least trying to go down swinging in that regard.
With the team they've assembled this season, the Dubs have at least given themselves one final runway to remain relevant and competitive, rather than waste the final years of Stephen Curry in meaningless, uncompetitive games.
However, the question for the Warriors for this season remains as true as ever since they got Curry and Green their fourth title: How real is the possibility of ring number five?
Given Golden State's “experienced” age as Kerr and team have described their veteran-heavy team, a loaded Western Conference with teams like the Oklahoma City Thunder, Denver Nuggets, and Houston Rockets (to name a few), and the grind of an 82-game season, the path to the finals remains as hard as ever for any team, let alone one like the Warriors where the pieces are theoretically in place.
But there is still a path. Jimmy Butler injected the Warriors with some real juice post-trade deadline last season, in ways that were not flukey. They finished the season 23-8 in what was essentially a must-win every game sprint into the postseason, where they would eventually upset the two-seeded Houston Rockets.
Trading for Butler, albeit costly on the books, extended Golden State's window, and if there were ever a season where they could make it back to the Finals, this would and has to be the year. That being said, here are three realistic bold predictions for the Warriors headed into this season.
The Warriors will finish Top 3 in free-throw rate and opponent turnovers
If you want to look at the two statistical factors behind the Warriors' late-season surge last season, look no further than free-throw rate and opponents' turnovers.
Using the All-Star break as the line of demarcation, Golden State went from 23rd in free-throw attempts to third in the league. And in terms of forcing turnovers, the Warriors went from 11th in the league in opponents' turnovers per game (14.8) to first in the league (17.6). Those are two stats that Kerr directly correlates to the addition of Jimmy Butler.
If the Warriors are going to have any success this season, it starts there because it's about maximizing their offensive opportunities. Turnovers create extra possessions, and trips to the free-throw line tend to salvage what may have turned into empty possessions. In recent history, Golden State has struggled with maximizing its offensive opportunities.
They don't rely on the heliocentric dependency of players like Nikola Jokic and Luka Doncic, players who are trusted with the ball in their hands for the majority of possession. The Warriors are a five-out, ball movement-based offense, meaning they want to move the ball. However, there can tend to be lulls in that style of offense when the shot clock's winding down or when you need a guy to just go and get a bucket.
Butler and Curry are capable of that kind of play, but burdening them with that responsibility over 82 games isn't realistic, hence the importance of getting to the free-throw line and forcing turnovers.
One of the young guys is going to pop
In a lot of ways, the Warriors' success this season hinges on one of Jonathan Kuminga, Brandin Podziemski, or Moses Moody taking a leap. Maybe that's true for a lot of teams this season, but it's especially true for the Warriors, who've acknowledged they'll be relying on their youth and depth when they load-manage the veteran core.
Thus far in preseason, Kuminga has looked much more comfortable with what Golden State is asking him to do, which is good considering his agent, Aaron Turner, this summer described Kerr's vision for Kuminga as “the worst sales pitch to a $20m+ free agent in the history of basketball.” He's rebounding, running the floor, minimizing his tunnel vision by finding cutters, and overall fits well in the Warriors' game plans so far.
As for Podziemski, he enters Year 3 with a potential contract extension on the table next offseason. While his IQ and effort defensively have been everything Golden State wanted from him, he needs to take a step up offensively.
His three-point jumper has been streaky since he entered the league. When he's on, he's on: Podziemski scored 26 points in Game 4 versus Houston last year. But he's still indecisive. He tends to dribble himself into trouble or pass up open shots. Spacing's been an emphasis all training camp, and Podziemski's shooting dictates the playability of a lot of the Warriors' potential lineups.
As for Moses Moody, the Warriors are going to rely on him to be the three-and-D point-of-attack defender they lost when they traded Andrew Wiggins away. It's not encouraging that Moody's already dealing with a calf injury, which may delay his season debut. But every team needs lengthy wings who can shoot and defend, and if Moody can reach that consistency, it only adds to the Warriors' versatility.
Golden State finishes in the Top 6 of the Western Conference
The Warriors cannot stress enough how important it is for them to get off to a fast start. Curry's described it as necessary so they do not have to chase it toward the end of the season and burn themselves out. Not to once again mention that this is an older team; they need a cushion to afford themselves load management.
That means not fighting for one of the spots in the dreaded Play-In tournament. And given how much Golden State's talked about starting the season strong, it's looking like one of those seasons where they avoid that mess altogether and carry that 23-8 magic from last season into this year.
But to get to the sixth seed in the West, it comes down to maximizing the games all the veterans play in and stealing the games they don't. That's an easier said than done balancing act that relies a lot on the coaching and infrastructure to manage those extenuating factors, but possible. They have one of the best medical staffs in the league, led by Rick Celebrini, director of sports medicine and performance.
There's certainly a scenario in which the Warriors are once again fighting to stay afloat in the crowded Western Conference, but given the buzz and the competitiveness emanating from the team in training camp, it's hard to believe they won't hit the ground running when the regular season kicks off.
