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LeBron James just finished sixth in MVP voting. He made second team All-NBA, his 21st consecutive season making an All-NBA team. When the Los Angeles Lakers traded for Luka Doncic, James shifted to a defensive-minded role and was as good at it as anyone could've possibly hoped. He has plenty in the tank and all the reasons in the world to take every red cent the Lakers are willing to offer. Still, his decision on what to do with his player option or his next contract will determine what the Lakers are capable of as they try to maximize his short window with Doncic.
Let's start with what should be the obvious: James is under no pressure whatsoever to take any kind of a pay cut. Yes, at this stage of his career, most players would be making substantially less than they did in their prime, but as James has maintained a pretty incredible level of play, he deserves the max contracts he's probably expecting. Demanding players take less than their worth is nasty business, full stop.
James also has to take into account his decision's impact on the rest of the Players Union – an organization he once held a leadership position in. If James heads into next season with a veteran's minimum contract, he would apply indirect pressure on his peers to also take less, a stance he's been adamantly against since he left the Miami Heat.
That said, James, like any other player in the NBA, improves his chances at winning by taking less – so long as their team, in this case, the Lakers, makes the most of the flexibility granted to them by a discount. So, if winning a championship is James' top priority, then he would likely have to consider taking at least slightly less than the max. The bigger the discount, the greater the chance he or any player gives their team at getting a ring.
Now, with all in mind, let's look at each scenario, its likelihood, and the impact it would have on the Lakers' offseason.
LeBron James opts in to Lakers option
According to Shams Charania and most reporters, this is the likeliest outcome right now. James would make $52.6 million next season and become a free agent at year's end. Most echo Charania's reporting that James intends to opt in, but some sources close to the Lakers say they anticipate James opting out and signing another two-year deal worth near the max with a player option for the second season and another full no-trade clause.
Let's take a second to ask an important question here: Why would James opt in and eschew an opportunity to plan for another season making $50-ish million? He has never operated as such, and the decision would have to raise at least a few eyebrows.
Perhaps James intends to retire after this season, and a contract that ends after this year is the cleanest way to do so. It's possible, and if this is his intention, then look for him to formally announce that decision and take advantage of the retirement tour he absolutely has earned. If he opts out and signs that 1+1 type deal, that second season would be calling to him like the Green Goblin mask even if he wanted to retire after next year.
Or, perhaps James is concerned that, if he opts out, the Lakers may not be as open to whatever kind of deal he wants as they were before landing Doncic. If the Lakers did negotiate harder with James now that they have Doncic, it would fly in the face of how they've treated every other superstar they've had in the past, even at the end of their careers. This feels unlikely, and sources close to the team indicate the Lakers intend to give James the grace he's earned both while wearing purple and gold, and as the face of the league for two decades-plus.
If James does opt in, the Lakers' options in this scenario are greatly minimized. They would be well under the second apron but right up against the first, with roster spots still needing to be filled. If they jump above that first apron, they wouldn't be able to make any trades that bring back more money than they send out, as well as other limitations. This isn't to say they would have no path to title contention whatsoever, but that path would be tricky, with very little (read: any) margin for error.
So, because there just isn't a very logical reason to do so and, frankly, because of the potential public backlash to this decision, this isn't the foregone conclusion it's been painted to be. James opting in is still considered by most to be the leader in the clubhouse, but the field is catching up, and it does feel like James opting out with the intent to sign another 1+1 deal is a scenario people should be taking more seriously.
LeBron James opts out, signs max or near-max
In this scenario, the point would be to secure a second season as an option just in case James wants to play another year and perhaps give the Lakers a little help in “Apron World” as he did last year, when he took just enough less than his max to let them enter the season under the second apron.
If the Lakers approached James and explained how taking slightly less would give them some necessary wiggle room under whichever apron, sources indicated that conversation would likely be productive, as they were just a year ago.
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With James near his max, the Lakers are probably still looking at a similar offseason outlook as the one outlined above. Yes, the Lakers could assemble a decent roster for next season, but they would be severely limited in their attempt.
To be absolutely clear, taking as close to his max as he wants would be completely within James' rights that he's earned over two decades in the NBA and in his Lakers tenure, and helping even a little bit would be a sign of good faith. It just also needs to be mentioned that this potential avenue to cap flexibility would be off the table.
LeBron James opts out, takes a discount of varying degrees
Finally, the moment you've probably been waiting for. What kind of actual discount would James consider and why?
For the “why” part of this, as a source close to the situation explained last summer.
“He wants to win,” the source told ClutchPoints. “And he especially wants to win with Bronny (James). What's to stop him from opting out and taking even less if he thinks it can lead to accomplishing that?”
That article was written shortly after the Doncic trade, with the premise being that as the Lakers were potentially closer to winning a championship, James would be more open to helping them financially. Again, whether he does so or not is his call, and fans should honor it, but that was the logic behind asking about this decision.
In order to get the Lakers under the luxury tax line so they have access to their full non-taxpayer mid-level exception, James would have to take a discount of well over $10 million. As things currently stand, sources do indicate this is pretty unlikely. Technically, it isn't impossible, but the Lakers would be unwise to plan for this without crystal clear messaging from James and his camp.
In order to convince him to take such a cut, the Lakers would have to do their homework ahead of time and show him who this discount would help them get. Last season, when Rich Paul said publicly James would take less, the list of names they'd help with consisted of James Harden, Klay Thompson, DeMar DeRozan, and (hilariously) Jonas Valanciunas. If the Lakers would like James to take a discount this season, they'd have to start by presenting him with a potential teammate along the lines of those first three names.
Let's say James splits the difference and takes something like $7 million less next season. This would give the Lakers more room under the first apron, which would help them take back more in a trade than they send out. If you're hoping for a discount, this is probably the most practical thing to hope for.
No matter what James decides to do, the Lakers are going to have to make it work. He has until June 29 to make a final decision, but most sources anticipate it to come before the NBA Draft, with so much motion around the league likely to take place around that time.
