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Almost two weeks into the regular season, the Portland Trail Blazers have been arguably the most volatile team in the NBA. At 3-2 following a pair of impressive double-digit victories over Western Conference playoff hopefuls, though, there's plenty of reason for optimism in Rip City.
Here are three overreactions for Portland based on its first five games of 2021-22.
Portland's Defense Is Legitimately Good
The Blazers enter Sunday's matchup with the Charlotte Hornets boasting the league's 11th-best defensive rating, per Cleaning the Glass, allowing 104.1 points per 100 possessions. Needless to say, Portland finishing with even just an average defense this season would be a major departure from its struggles on that side of the ball in recent years, not to mention a ringing endorsement of Billups' aggressive defensive system. If the Blazers somehow manage to stick around the top-10 defensively, though? Billups won't only be a Coach of the Year frontrunner, but his team will have emerged as a real threat to win multiple playoff series in the rough-and-tumble Western Conference.
The question of whether Portland would be better defensively has already been answered. Apart from an “embarrassing” loss to the LA Clippers in which the Blazers simply failed to show up, they've been more dogged and diligent defensively in the season's early going than pretty much any time over the last two seasons. Ignore the result of the possession below and focus on the process. It's just not one Portland was capable of while deploying Terry Stotts' ultra-conservative scheme.
It's way too early to say with any degree of certainty that Portland has fixed its longstanding problems on defense. Even if the Blazers sustain their current defensive rating, they'll still have many concerns to address on that side of the ball once the playoffs roll around. Their personnel is much-improved on that end, specifically off the bench, but concerns about a lack of size on the perimeter, Jusuf Nurkic's mobility and conditioning and collective defense at the point of attack will resurface against elite competition regardless.
Positive statistical indicators abound, though, and are supported by an eye test that's almost gotten better by the game since the regular season tipped off. The Blazers have clearly made strides defensively; it's the length of them that's still largely unknown.
Anfernee Simons and Nassir Little Are For Real
Simons struggled to his first poor shooting night of the young season in Portland's revenge rout of the Clippers on Friday, but you wouldn't have known given how he affected the game otherwise. He'll never be a one-on-one stopper due to size limitations, the same inherent deficiencies that make Simons imminently exploitable as a backline defender in Billups' system.
Still, Simons' effort, physicality and communication defensively are on a different level than they've been throughout his career. The same is even more easily said for his budding ability as an on-ball creator, which made Simons the talk of training camp. This isn't a move he had the confidence or poise to make in a game setting before 2021-22.
Little's development has mostly come in a different form, but is no less significant than Simons' for himself or the Blazers.
First off the bench in Billups' rotation during the three games he didn't start for an injured Norman Powell, Little is bringing tireless energy and palpable athletic pop every time he steps on the floor for Portland. It's mostly been manifested in towering rebounds and powerful finishes around the rim, but Little's shown additional comfort as a spot shooter and straight-line driver, too.
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Little's also been the most disruptive perimeter player on the weak side of the defense, whether with active hands at the nail or high arms at the rim. He's making fewer gameplan mistakes as well, often seamlessly executing the finer points of high-level NBA defense. Watch Little snuff out a late-clock high ball screen on the possession below, pre-switching with Cody Zeller so he could be the one ultimately guarding Reggie Jackson.
The jumper will come and go for Simons throughout the season, and there's bound to be a stretch when Little has trouble putting the ball in the basket at all. They're still regular rotation players for the first time, remember.
But there was a possibility coming into this season that relying on Simons and Little—even for relatively small roles—would pose more problems for Portland than solutions. They've already put that worry to rest at the very least. Next up for Simons and Little is proving their highly encouraging starts to 2021-22 are sustainable over the 82-game grind.
Chauncey Billups Is A Major Upgrade
Frankly, Billups' presence would almost be worthwhile due to Damian Lillard's recent comments about staying in Portland alone. Lillard loved Stotts; don't let anyone suggest anything different. But Stotts' voice had grown stale in the locker room after nearly a decade with the Blazers, and Lillard's existing relationship with Billups has grown much stronger since the latter took the reins in early July. Lillard doesn't just want to win a title for Rip City—he wants to do it with Billups.
That same sense of interpersonal buy-in trickles all the way down from the top of the roster. Jusuf Nurkic, fed up with Stotts by the end of last season and unafraid to show it, shared a hug with Billups as he left the floor on Friday night. Norman Powell re-signed with the Blazers in part due to his promised role in Billups' motion-heavy, variable offensive attack. Simons coming into his own as a ball-handler as Billups replaces Stotts is no coincidence, and the same goes for Little's boundless confidence.
At Media Day, the Blazers en masse discussed the virtues of Billups' emphasis on accountability and communication, attributes largely absent under Stotts. The on-court benefits of that change have been obvious. Portland is playing with more edge, connectedness and joy than it has in a long, long time. It's not just the intangibles Billups has instilled in his team that are impressive, though. The rookie head coach has begun making opponent-specific and in-game adjustments that point to strategic prowess, too.
The Blazers busted out a hybrid 2-3 zone for a couple different stints against the Memphis Grizzlies, loading the paint against Ja Morant to dare his teammates to shoot. They worked hard to go under every ball screen set for Eric Bledsoe against LA on Friday night, paying Terance Mann similar disrespect as a shooter away from the ball. In both of those games, Billups let Lillard take over the offense for multiple stretches, spamming high pick-and-roll to target weak defenders—and help the Blazers' best player find his jumper.
There will definitely be blips along the way during Billups' inaugural season. One full month into his first campaign as Portland's coach, though, Billups has already proven an upgrade in many more ways than the most important one—ensuring Lillard is re-committed to Rip City.
