The Portland Trail Blazers are essentially guaranteed a spot in the 2026 NBA play-in tournament, and taking a step towards consistent winning basketball was a goal for them prior to the start of the 2025-26 season. While they seem to be ways away from cracking the top-six in the Western Conference, getting their first taste of postseason action after missing out over the past four seasons is crucial towards preparing them for the years to come.
But of course, the Blazers aren't going to be just content with making it there and simply rolling over once the time to play for their playoff lives comes. They would want to make it to the playoffs, and they would want to at least make other teams know that they're coming.
To that end, this is the scenario the Blazers would want to avoid at all costs with the play-in tournament fast approaching.
Blazers' nightmare scenario: Portland falls to 10th, faces Los Angeles Clippers in the play-in tournament
The Blazers are currently in ninth place in the West standings at the time of writing with a 37-38 record. They are only 1.5 games back of the Clippers in the win-loss column, which makes it very possible for them to make it to the play-in tournament as the eighth seed — giving them two shots at qualifying for the playoffs at the very least.
With the Phoenix Suns looking very vulnerable recently due to the absences of key players like Dillon Brooks and Mark Williams, drawing them in the 7/8 play-in matchup is looking like the Blazers' best-case scenario. Portland definitely has the pieces to make life difficult for a perimeter-based Suns team, although Brooks and Williams, based on their injury recovery timelines, should be back come postseason time.
Nevertheless, nothing is set in stone for the Blazers quite yet, although it helps that only two of Portland's remaining games in the regular season will come against playoff teams in the West (Denver Nuggets and San Antonio Spurs). Four of those matchups will be against tanking or poor teams (Washington Wizards, Sacramento Kings, Dallas Mavericks, and New Orleans Pelicans), which should favor Portland.
The problem, however, is that the Blazers will still face the Clippers twice more before the season ends in games that could be crucial for playoff seeding. While it's unlikely for the Clippers to remain in the 9/10 play-in matchup should they win both of those games against the Blazers, anything can still happen in the NBA — especially if Stephen Curry were to return for the Golden State Warriors.
This nightmare scenario, however, is truly unlikely to come to fruition. Five of the Warriors' remaining games will be against teams currently in position to make the playoffs outright (Spurs, Los Angeles Lakers, Nuggets, Cleveland Cavaliers, and Houston Rockets), while another will be against the Clippers. The Dubs essentially have one of the most difficult schedules remaining, with the difficulty being amplified further by Curry's absence.
So in all likelihood, the Blazers are favored to remain in ninth place in the West standings with an outside chance of usurping the Clippers for the eighth seed. But considering how the Clippers have been the Blazers' bogey team over the past few years, this is not very probable.
What's even worse is if the Blazers and Clippers both fall off to end the season, paving the way for the Warriors to, despite all unlikelihood, make their way to the eighth spot. The worst-case scenario for the Blazers is if they fall to 10th and have to face the Clippers, a team that's owned them since Leonard came into the team.
Since the 2019-20 season, the Blazers have only won two of their 22 meetings against the Clippers. What changed in 2019, might you ask? Leonard signed with the Clippers. Since the start of his Clippers tenure, Leonard has gone unbeaten against the Blazers in 12 games against them.
Leonard has routinely been good against the Blazers, averaging 25.6 points, 7.4 rebounds, and 4.6 assists in those 12 wins. While the Blazers have the personnel to at least try and slow down Leonard, what with Toumani Camara being one of the best and most versatile defenders in the NBA and Jrue Holiday also on the team now, the pattern for the Blazers is clear.
Facing Leonard in a playoff-like setting is also asking for trouble; Leonard is averaging nearly 28 points per game on ridiculous 53/37/85 shooting splits in the playoffs during his time with the Clippers, and that's with his horrible playoff performance in 2024 when he was dealing with injury.
The Blazers have to be hoping that they earn the eighth-seed to set up a matchup against the Suns and give themselves some margin for error in the play-in tournament, lest they run the risk of this worst-case scenario coming to life.
