It is a Big Ten against SEC clash as Wisconsin hits the road to face Alabama. Alabama is coming off beating ULM by 73 points, while Wisconsin just secured its second win of the year. While Alabama comes in as a heavy favorite, Wisconsin has been solid this year. With two power conference teams set to take the field, it is time to make bold predictions about this Week 3 clash.
Wisconsin hits the road coming into the game at 2-0. The Badgers opened the season against Miami (OH). In the game, new Badgers quarterback Billy Edwards Jr. went down with a non-contact injury. The offense struggled, but the team still took a 17-0 victory in the game. In Week 2, the offense was much better, while the defense stayed stout, winning the game over Middle Tennessee, 42-10.
Meanwhile, Alabama struggled to start the season. The team opened the season facing Florida State on the road and came into the game as a heavy favorite. The Crimson Tide fell 31-17 in the game, placing Kalen DeBoer firmly on the hot seat. Alabama did rebound in Week 2, taking a 73-0 win. That was over ULM, though, not nearly the level of competition as Florida State or Wisconsin.
Danny O'Neil starts regardless of the status of Billy Edwards Jr.
Edwards was named as the starting quarterback for the Badgers this year. The Maryland transfer struggled in the game against Miami (OH), completing just six of 13 passes for 68 yards and leading the team to just three points. He then went down with his injury, but there was encouraging news on the injury for Wisconsin. There was no major damage, which has led to speculation that he has an outside shot to return against Alabama.
Even if he can go, Edwards needs to stay on the bench. Beyond the Wisconsin offense looking sluggish with him at quarterback, and then improving with Danny O'Neil, the offense was better in Week 2 with O'Neil at quarterback. Further, the game plan against Alabama's defense should be simple. Run the ball, and run with the quarterback. Alabama gave up 230 yards on the ground to Florida State, with 78 yards and a touchdown coming from quarterback Tommy Castellanos.
Moreover, in 2024, the first year under DeBoer, Alabama lost three times in the regular season. In the loss to Vanderbilt, the team ran for 166 yards, with 56 coming from quarterback Diego Pavia. Tennessee then ran for 214 yards, with Nico Iamaleava running for 44 yards. Finally, Oklahoma ran for 257 yards with Jackson Arnold running for 131 yards. Each of the last four regular-season losses has seen solid running games and mobile quarterbacks. All four teams were underdogs going into the game as well, with three of the games the winning team coming in as double-digit dogs.
For Wisconsin to win, the running game, specifically at quarterback, needs to be on point. Edwards is not a major running threat, and his injury was to his leg, making his mobility even worse. While O'Neil is not as mobile as Pavia, Arnold, or Castellanos, he can run the ball. Wisconsin is going to need him to do that in this game and make plays with his feet.
Ty Simpson takes a step back
Ty Simpson took over as the starting quarterback this year for the Alabama Crimson Tide. He had appeared in 16 games before this season, completing 29 of 50 passes for 381 yards but without a touchdown. So far this year, he has completed 40 of 60 passes for 480 yards and five touchdowns.
Simpson was perfect against ULM. He completed all 17 of his passes for 226 yards and three touchdowns while also finding the end zone on the ground once. The redshirt junior quarterback struggled some against Florida State, though. He completed just 23 of 42 passes for 254 yards and three scores.
The Tide quarterback will not be perfect again, but may also not be at the level he was against FSU. Wisconsin has been solid against the pass already this year, allowing just 235.5 yards per game, with much of that coming due to opponents being behind last in the game. Adding to the difficulty for Simpson is a run game that has not been great. The run game has been led by Kevin Riley, and has a total of 299 yards this year, but just 87 came against FSU. Jam Miller could return in this game, but the expectation is that it will be after the open week and facing Georgia.
Luke Fickell is a defensive-minded head coach and has always made solid schemes to confuse quarterbacks. With Mike Tressel as the defensive coordinator, the two should have a plan to slow down Simpson. The Tide QB is going to turn over the ball at least once in this one, and he will have a tough day, especially if Miller is still out of the lineup.
Wisconsin plays with nothing to lose
Wisconsin hosted Alabama in 2024. Alabama dominated the game, winning 42-10. Further, Wisconsin did not look prepared and struggled on offense. The offense has much improved this year and has shown that they will adjust in-game, something that is different from the 2024 version of this team. Moreover, the offense is expected to struggle again in a Wisconsin defeat.
Jeff Grimes is the new offensive coordinator, and he has shown throughout his career, he is not afraid to take risks. He did that at BYU with Zach Wilson, again at Baylor, where he was a finalist for the Broyles Award, and continued that at Kansas. The Wisconsin offense is going to attempt to make some big plays against this Alabama defense, and some of them will connect.
Meanwhile, the defense has been playing stellar all year. They have played with aggression and speed that was not seen in 2024. With Wisconsin being a major underdog in this game, the defense will take some risks that are going to pay off.
At the time of writing, odds provided by FanDuel have Alabama as 20.5-point favorites. Alabama covered that last year, but the seat for DeBoer is going to get hotter after this game, as they fail to cover in this one, and will be on upset alert.
