Charlotte, North Carolina, is the site of the ACC Championship Game as Duke faces off with Virginia. It is a rematch of a regular-season matchup, in which Virginia won 34-17. As the two prepare to face off, a Duke win could send the College Football Playoffs into chaos. Meanwhile, a Virginia win would likely send them to the playoffs.
Duke comes into the game at 7-5 on the season, and was 6-2 in conference play. After an opening win over Elon, Duke fell to Illinois and Tulane. They would win four of the next five, with the only loss being to Georgia Tech. Still, the Blue Devils would then fall to UConn and Virginia before wins over North Carolina and Wake Forest to end the season. Combined with a loss from SMU, Duke won a five-team tiebreaker to claim a spot in the ACC Championship Game.
Meanwhile, Virginia finished the season 10-2. After a win over Coastal Carolina to open the season, Virginia fell on the road to NC State in a non-conference game. The Cavaliers then won seven straight games, but some by tight margins. There was a double overtime win over Florida State, an overtime victory over Louisville, a two-point win against Washington State, and then an overtime victory over North Carolina. After so many tight games, Virginia finally fell to Wake Forest, as quarterback Chandler Morris was injured in the game. Since then, they have won their last two games, both by 17 or more points.
Darian Mensah shows the Duke offensive firepower
The Duke offense has been solid this season. They are 18th in FBS in points per game while also sitting 38th in yards per game. The running game has struggled, averaging just 130.1 yards per game, which is 92nd nationally. Still, the passing game is ranked 16th. Darian Mensah has led the way for Duke this year. He spent the 2023 and 2024 seasons with Tulane, redshirting in 2023. He then started in 2024, passing for 2,723 yards and 22 touchdowns.
The sophomore quarterback has been even better at Duke this year. Mensah has passed for 3,450 yards and 28 touchdowns while throwing just four interceptions. He has also run for a touchdown this season. Mensah was not at his best against Virginia last time the two faced off. He completed just 18 of 35 passes for 213 yards and a touchdown. He was also sacked four times in the game.
Virginia has been solid on defense this year, sitting 21st in opponent points per game while also being 21st in opponent yards per game. They have been better against the run this year, but are still 44th against the pass. Mensah will be better prepared for the Virginia defense in this game. Duke is going to score more in this game than they did last time, and that will be led by Mensah, who will have multiple touchdowns.
Virginia responds with offensive fireworks of their own
Meanwhile, the Virginia offense has been solid this season as well. They are 26th in points per game while sitting 40th in yards per game. The offense has also been fairly balanced, sitting 46th in the run and 56th in the pass. Senior quarterback Chandler Morris has led the way for the Cavaliers.
He has passed for 2,586 yards with 14 touchdowns, while also having seven interceptions. Meanwhile, he has run for 248 yards and five scores. Morris did have some struggles against Duke the last time the two teams faced off. He passed for 316 yards and two touchdowns, but was also intercepted twice in the game. Still, the offense is not fully reliant on Morris to have a major game. J'Mari Taylor has also been great out of the backfield. He has run for 997 yards with 14 touchdowns. In the game against Duke, he ran for 133 yards and found the endzone twice.
The Duke defense has not been great. They are 99th in opponent points per game while sitting 111th in opponent yards per game. They are 44th against the run but 133rd against the pass. The Blue Devils' defense is going to struggle again in this game. Morris and Taylor are both going to have solid games, with the duo accounting for four touchdowns in the game.
The CFP avoids the chaos scenario
There are a few major areas that will decide this game. The first one is on third downs. Duke has struggled heavily on third downs this year. They convert on 38.57 percent of offensive third downs, which is 74th. Meanwhile, they are 122nd on third down on defense. Virginia has been great on third downs. They are 11th in offensive conversion rate and third on defense.
Both teams have done a great job of protecting the ball while creating turnovers. Virginia did not do that in the first game. with Duke. They turned over the ball twice in the game, a rarity for the Cavaliers. They are not going to turn the ball over twice in this game.
Duke is 6-6 against the spread this season, but has covered just once in the last five games. Virginia is 8-4 against the spread this year, and has covered in three of the last four games. Odds at the time of writing, provided by DraftKings, have Virginia as a 3.5-point favorite.
Other fans in the state of Virginia will be rooting against UVA in this game, with the hopes that they can see James Madison advance to the playoffs. The James Madison fans will be disappointed in the outcome, as Virginia not only wins but covers with ease in the ACC Championship.
