No one may have entered the 2025 college football season on a hotter seat than Florida’s Billy Napier. After the No. 13 Gators’ 18-16 loss to South Florida on Saturday, someone needs to hand the fourth-year head coach a fire extinguisher — and maybe a hug.
Believe it or not, Napier actually cooled his seat a bit with last year’s 8-5 finish. Coming off his second losing season in Gainesville, he had plenty to prove. To make matters worse, Florida drew one of the toughest schedules in the country, facing six top-25 teams.
Starting 1-2, including a 41-17 beating by No. 19 Miami, it looked like Florida athletic director Scott Stricklin might fire Napier any day. Instead, Stricklin stuck with his coach, and the Gators closed the season on a four-game winning streak, knocking off two ranked teams and capping it with a bowl victory.
But all of that goodwill vanished with one loss.
South Florida wasn’t just another loss for the Gators
Things weren’t supposed to get difficult for Florida until Week 3, when they travel to Death Valley to face No. 3 LSU. Facing the Bulls at home, just as they had Long Island the week before, was supposed to be another tune-up before a brutal stretch.
In their final 10 games, the Gators face eight ranked opponents — five of those on the road and five inside the top 10. Much like last year, nobody would have blinked at a few of those losses. If they piled up, that’s when Napier’s job security would have come into play. But he didn’t even make it out of Week 2 unscathed against an unranked opponent.
To be fair, South Florida isn’t a pushover. The Bulls beat No. 25 Boise State in Week 1 and could notch a third straight ranked win when they take on No. 5 Miami this week. Still, the only reason USF is ranked today is because of their upset at The Swamp — and that says more about the Gators than it does about the Bulls.
Florida beat itself against USF
South Florida coach Alex Golesh is proving he could be the next head coach to land a Power Four job. As well as he had his team prepared, Napier’s Gators looked the opposite.
Florida committed 11 penalties for 103 yards, including two on the final drive that set up Nico Gramatica’s game-winning 20-yard field goal. Of course, one of those included Brendan Bett's spitting ejection.
That wasn’t all. Down 13-9 late in the third quarter, a bad snap sailed over the punter’s head for a safety, extending the Bulls’ lead.
“We created it. We deserve it,” Napier said. “If you play football like that, you’re going to be criticized. It comes with the territory, right? Only thing you can do is go get it fixed, and that’s what we’ll start working on (Sunday).”
This Gators team doesn’t look improved
Optimism last year came from Napier leading Florida to eight wins when most expected two and a last-place finish in the SEC. You’d think that momentum would carry into this season. It didn’t show against South Florida.
“I just saw a team that looked obligated to be there,” On3’s J.D. PicKell said. “… There was no juice from Florida, really on either side of the football, but especially on defense.”
Florida allowed 391 total yards and 5.8 yards per play — numbers that won’t cut it with a gauntlet of top-ranked opponents ahead.
The offense was just as bad. Even with 355 total yards, the Gators converted only 4-of-12 third downs and scored their lone touchdown in the fourth quarter.
Perhaps most concerning, D.J. Lagway didn’t look like the five-star quarterback he was billed to be. He went 23-of-33 for 222 yards with one touchdown and one interception, finishing with a passer rating of 58.8. His accuracy was shaky throughout, killing drives with missed throws.
Billy Napier’s numbers don’t lie
Napier is now 20-20 overall at Florida after leaving Louisiana with a 40-12 record. He hasn’t replicated any of the success with the Gators he had with the Ragin’ Cajuns yet. And he may not get a chance to.
The USF loss was his sixth defeat against an unranked team. He’s 10-14 in SEC play, with losing records against rivals Georgia, Tennessee and Florida State.
That won’t cut it in Gainesville, where coaches have been fired for less. But this is a different era in college athletics, and Napier’s hefty buyout looms large.
After signing a $51.8 million deal in 2021, he’s owed $22.8 million over the next three seasons, according to CBS Sports’ Robby Kalland. His buyout equals 85% of what remains on the contract — $19.38 million after this season.
Napier can still save himself, but only if he somehow rallies his team through one of the toughest schedules in modern college football.
