For the 58th time in history, the Florida Gators will square off against the Miami Hurricanes in Week 4 of the college football football. The SEC-ACC matchup features two programs headed in opposite directions. The No. 4 Hurricanes are riding a three-game winning streak, while the Gators enter on a two-game skid and remain unranked.
Just a couple of weeks ago, this was shaping up to be a marquee showdown at Hard Rock Stadium between in-state ranked opponents. Instead, Mario Cristobal has Miami (3-0) looking like one of the best teams in the country, while Florida (1-2) has continued to slide. That decline has placed head coach Billy Napier’s job under intense scrutiny. With a grueling schedule still ahead, Napier’s tenure now appears to be on a week-to-week basis.
Depending on Saturday’s result — and how severe it is — Miami could be the last opponent Napier ever faces as Florida’s head coach. Already, two Power Four coaches have been dismissed in the past week: Virginia Tech’s Brent Pry and UCLA’s DeShaun Foster. The question now is whether Napier could be next.
DJ Lagway catches Miami off guard for a touchdown
Let’s start with DJ Lagway. The former five-star quarterback has struggled mightily over the past two games. Against LSU, he threw five interceptions, including one returned for a touchdown. Clearly, something is off with the young quarterback.
Still, there have been flashes of why Lagway was such a highly recruited prospect — though they’ve been few and far between. Some point to his health, noting he entered the season playing catch-up while recovering from injuries.
“I don't want to make that excuse about him missing so much time, because we all tried to at least feel like it wasn't going to be too much of a drop off,” Lagway's personal quarterback coach JP Tillman said, via CBS Sports.
Miami, meanwhile, has a new-look defense guided by coordinator Corey Hetherman. Through three games, the unit is still gelling, as shown by the eight pass plays of 20 yards or more it has allowed, according to The Athletic’s Manny Navarro.
Don’t be surprised if Lagway catches Miami off guard for a touchdown, even if a couple of interceptions come with it. Add in a couple sacks with that, too.
Miami outrushes the Gators
After rushing for 200 yards and a touchdown against Long Island in Week 1, Florida’s ground game has declined each week. Against LSU, the Gators managed just 79 yards and no scores. Meanwhile, Miami’s balanced attack has thrived, averaging 5.1 yards per carry with nine total touchdowns.
Florida’s defensive front will provide resistance, but the Gators are now missing a key piece with lineman Caleb Banks sidelined. That could open the door for another big day on the ground for Miami, which boasts three capable backs in Mark Fletcher, Charmar Brown and Jordan Lyle (if available).
On the other side, Miami’s defense ranks 15th nationally against the run, allowing just 75 yards per game. That only strengthens the odds that the Hurricanes will outrush the Gators in Saturday night's game.
Carson Beck continues streak over Florida, increasing Heisman Trophy campaign
In last year’s matchup between these teams, Cam Ward kick-started his Heisman campaign with an electric performance. While Ward fell short of the award, this year could mark Miami’s third Heisman winner if Carson Beck keeps rolling.
This Week 4 showdown will be the centerpiece of college football, with ESPN’s College GameDay on campus and the game in prime time. That gives Beck the perfect stage to showcase his talents.
Beck is undefeated against Florida, dating back to his Georgia days. While his last outing against the Gators wasn’t his best — two first-half interceptions led to 10 points — he looks like a different quarterback now.
“It’s a really good defense and they’ve shown that this year in the three games that they’ve played,” Beck said, according to an article from Yahoo Sports. “So again, it’s going to be a challenge for us. But you know, we’re excited to accept that challenge.”
Miami covers spread, beats Florida by two scores
It was surprising when Miami opened as just a 7.5-point favorite. After all, the Hurricanes are at home and rank top 30 nationally in both scoring offense and scoring defense.
Florida’s defense has been respectable, allowing just 38 points all season. But the Gators’ offense has sputtered, producing only 26 points over the last two games. Whether that’s Napier’s play calling, Lagway’s regression, or a mix of both, the unit is clearly struggling.
Miami simply feels like the deeper, more talented team across the board. Unless Beck unravels, the Hurricanes should win this matchup comfortably — by at least two scores.
