It is a top-25 battle in the Big Ten as Iowa visits USC. Iowa is coming off a heartbreaking loss and looks to rebound this week. Meanwhile, USC is coming off a Friday night victory. and look to keep their winning streak going. It is now a clash between two top-half teams in the conference, and here are three bold predictions on the game.
Iowa is 6-3 on the year and 4-2 in conference play. They opened the year with a win over Albany before falling to Iowa State on the road. They would then win two in a row, before a five-point loss to Indiana. After wins over Wisconsin, Penn State, and Minnesota, the Hawkeyes faced Oregon last week. Oregon opened the scoring with a safety and led 12-7 going into the halftime break. Iowa made the comeback and went on a 93-yard drive in the fourth quarter, scoring with just 1:48 left in the game. They missed the two-point conversion, resulting in it being a one-point game. Oregon took the ball, drove the field, and hit the field goal as time expired. Oregon won the game 18-16.
Meanwhile, USC is 7-2 on the season, and 5-1 in conference play. They opened the year 4-0 before falling 34-32 on the year to Illinois. They would then defeat Michigan before losing 34-24 on the road to Notre Dame. Since they, the Trojans defeated Nebraska on the road, and then beat Northwestern last week. The win over Northwestern was not without controversy, as USC used an illegal trick play in the game.
Mark Gronowski continues to shine
The Iowa offense has been solid for the standards of Iowa. They are 123rd in the nation in yards per game, but are 52nd in points per game this year. They are 56th in the nation in the run game, while sitting 128th in the nation in passing yards per game. One of the biggest factors for the offense has been the play of quarterback Mark Gronowski.
He is a transfer in from South Dakota State and has played great since joining the Hawkeyes. This year, he has completed 117 of 183 passes for 1,084 yards and five touchdowns. He does have four interceptions, though. Still, he has not thrown a pick in the last two weeks while throwing touchdown passes in each of the last two games. He has also had a QBR over 70 in each of the last three games.
Still, it is his legs that make Gronowski dangerous. The quarterback has run for 338 yards this year, while scoring 12 times on the ground. He has also scored on the ground in all nine games this season.
USC has been good on defense this year, sitting 32nd in the nation in opponent points per game while also 41st in opponent yards per game. Still, while they are 39th against the pass, they are 49th against the run. Gronowski will make a couple of plays with his arm, but his legs will be the star in this one.
Jayden Maiava struggles
USC has been one of the best offensive units in the nation. They are fourth in FBS in points per game while sitting first in yards per game. They are 18th in the run and ninth in the pass. This has been led by the quarterback, Jayden Maiava. The junior has thrown for 2,614 yards this year while also completing 66.2 percent of his passes. Meanwhile, he has 17 touchdowns passing, while also running for another six.
The Iowa defense is also one of the best in the nation. They are fifth in opponent points per game while sitting fourth in opponent yards per game. They are 19th against the run but fourth against the pass. What is more important is that Iowa creates 1.5 turnovers per game while sitting eighth in the nation in interception rate.
Maiava has thrown just six interceptions, but has done so in five straight games. He is also not getting the same protection, being sacked six times in the last three games. Against Nebraska, He threw for just 135 yards on nine of 23 passing with an interception. He was sacked three times as well. Iowa has a better defense and will be able to produce similar results. They will force at least one interception and limit the USC quarterback in this game.
Iowa experiences more heartbreak
The USC offense against the Iowa defense is a strength against strength situation, which will keep the game close. As will the play from Iowa quarterback Gronowski. Iowa has also been great in the red zone, sitting 25th in the nation in red zone scoring. Still, USC is second in red zone defense.
Iowa is also good at winning he turnover battle, sitting 24th in the nation in turnover margin. USC is also solid there, sitting 40th. Iowa is also 6-2-1 against the spread, and 2-0-1 when an underdog. USC is 4-4 against the spread as a favorite this year. Odds at the time of writing, provided by FanDuel, have USC as a 6.5-point favorite.
The biggest difference between these two is going to be the difference in the game. Iowa is 82nd in the nation in field goal conversion rate. USC is sixth nationally in field goal conversion. Ryon Sayeri is 15-16 kicking this year, while hitting all five attempts beyond 40 yards. He also has a long of 54 yards.
Iowa is going to keep this game close on the back of their defense. For the second week in a row, they are going to have a late lead. They will also fall in heartbreaking fashion for a second week in a row, as Sayeri walks off the field a hero for USC.
