It is a top-25 matchup and the site of College Game Day as Notre Dame visits Pittsburgh. Notre Dame currently has a spot in the College Football Playoff, sitting ninth in the second set of rankings. Meanwhile, Pitt is ranked 22nd, and the clearest path for them seems to be to win the ACC. They are currently the fifth-ranked team in the conference. This is a game that could have end-of-season implications, as we make bold predictions on the contest.
Notre Dame comes into the game at 7-2 on the year. Notre Dame lost in each of their first two games, falling to Miami by three on the road and then losing by one to Texas A&M. Since then, they have won seven straight games. The games have not been close. Notre Dame has won each of the games by ten or more points, with all but the game with USC being won by two touchdowns or more. Still, that win over USC is the only victory over a ranked them this year.
Meanwhile, Pitt is 7-2 on the year, and 5-1 in conference play. They won their first two games before a loss to rival West Virginia on the road, and then fell by seven to Louisville. They have since won five straight games, all in ACC play. Pitt head coach Pat Narduzzi claims this game is not a must-win. He is correct, as Pitt still faces Georgia Tech and Miami, which could lead to an ACC Championship game appearance. Still, a win would go a long way to increase their ranking.
Jeremiyah Love carries Notre Dame
Notre Dame has been great on offense this year. They are seventh in the nation in points per game while sitting ninth in yards per game. Further, the team is 20th in the run game while sitting 23rd in the pass. A major reason for the success of the offense has been the play of Jeremiyah Love, who is getting some Heisman hype.
Love has run for 988 yards this year, on just 154 attempts. That places him fifth in the FBS in rushing yards this year. Meanwhile, he has run for 13 touchdowns, tied for third nationally. He has also brought in 24 receptions for 254 yards and three touchdowns. Love has been on fire as of late. He has scored touchdowns in eight straight games, with six games with multiple scores. Further, over the last three games, he has scored five times while running for 458 yards.
Pittsburgh has been solid on defense overall, sitting 47th in the nation in opponent points per game while sitting 27th in opponent yards per game. They are 101st against the pass. Still, the defense is fifth against the run. Pitt has not faced a running back at the level of Love yet this year. He is going to be over 80 yards and a touchdown.
Mason Heintschel stars
The Pittsburgh offense has been great this season. They are 11th in the nation in points per game while sitting 30th in yards per game. They have been great this year on the ground, sitting 101st in rushing yards per game. Still, the pass offense has been amazing this season, sitting ninth in yards per game.
Pitt was 2-2 on the year, and the offense was struggling early in the season. They made a change at quarterback, benching Eli Holstein and starting Mason Heintschel. Heintschel has turned the offense around. He has passed for 1,547 yards while making just five starts. Further, he has 12 touchdowns this year. He has been intercepted five times this year, but also run for a touchdown. Further, the freshman quarterback has been great in the last two weeks, passing for 727 yards and six touchdowns.
The Notre Dame defense has been solid this year, sitting 15th in the nation in opponent points per game while sitting 30th in opponent yards per game. They are 14th against the run, but 77th against the pass. The Notre Dame pass defense will be an issue again in this one. Heinschel will throw for over 300 yards again and keep this one close.
Pitt damages Notre Dame's playoff chance
The Fighting Irish have covered in just four games this year, while being favored in every game this season. Further, they have covered just once in the last three games. Meanwhile, Pitt has covered in seven of nine games on the campaign. They have also covered the spread in every victory this year, and covered in each of the last five games.
Notre Dame struggled in the first half against USC. They were up just one point in the game, and would have been down had it not been for a poor decision by Lane Kiffin to go for it on fourth and three in field goal range. They were solid in the second half, but it was three USC turnovers in the second half that gave the game to the Irish.
Pitt is 63rd in the nation in turnover margin this year, and 16th in takeaways per game. While they will turn over the ball some, they force turnovers more often. This is going to keep the game tight.
Odds at the time of writing, according to FanDuel, have Notre Dame as an 11.5-point favorite. Notre Dame is not going to cover in this game, and the game turns into a shootout late. Meanwhile, the Irish are 116th in field goal percentage this year, while Pitt is 27th. A missed field goal by Notre Dame is going to be the turning point, as Notre Dame's playoff hopes end at the hands of Pittsburgh.
