The Oklahoma Sooners enter the 2025 season ranked No. 18 in the country. That came as a bit of a surprise considering the Sooners finished unranked last season at 6-7. That’s why head coach Brent Venables made major staff and roster adjustments that could turn his team into a true dark horse in the SEC.
Venables hit the portal hard to upgrade the roster, pulling in 247Sports’ 12th-ranked transfer class. But of those 21 additions, none were bigger than former Washington State quarterback John Mateer.
Mateer’s signing with the Sooners was two-fold. Venables first hired Ben Arbuckle, his former Washington State offensive coordinator, to run Oklahoma’s offense. That move helped lure Mateer to Norman — along with an NIL offer reportedly worth close to $3 million.
The question is, will all of this pay off for Venables and Oklahoma? The expectation may not be a national championship, but it sure isn’t 6-7, which has been the outcome in two of Venables’ three seasons in charge.
Let’s get into our Oklahoma Sooners bold predictions for the 2025 season.
John Mateer will be a Heisman Trophy candidate
We’ll start with the Sooners’ biggest transfer addition. John Mateer is a fairly unknown commodity to those who either neglected or completely forgot that there were still two members of the Pac-12 remaining last season.
Mateer put up gaudy numbers in 2024, piling up nearly 4,000 yards from scrimmage with 44 touchdowns. He’s a lethal, legitimate dual-threat quarterback who can make plays in a number of ways, which should put him up for all kinds of awards.
“They’ll be talking about Heisman contention and all the quarterback awards for John Mateer,” Josh Pate said on his College Football Show.
Does that mean Mateer has to lead Oklahoma to victory in every game? No, absolutely not. What he does have to do — and most likely will do — is revive what was a pedestrian offense last season that simply couldn’t move the ball. He should be able to do much more than just move the chains. He’s likely to give the Sooners one of the best offenses in the country.
That’s why he’ll be a Heisman Trophy candidate in 2025.
Oklahoma will have a top-10 offense
Continuing to bounce of Mateer, the offense should be in line for a drastic improvement. Not only do you have Mateer at quarterback but there's also the addition of several other key pieces.
The wide receiver depth has been completely overhauled with new pass catchers. But outside of Mateer, the biggest addition has to be Cal running back Jaydn Ott.
Ott is coming off a bad season, plagued by injuries. But his sophomore season, he was one of the best in the country, rushing for 1,315 yards and 12 touchdowns, averaging 5.3 yards per carry. Now he and Jovantae Barnes will handle the backfield, along with Mateer that will have his fair share of runs. This could be a lethal running attack this season from the Sooners.
Last year's offense ranked 97th in the country in offense. While it would be a massive jump, it's not out of the realm of possibility that this years unit ranks in the top 10. That's the advantages of the transfer portal and Arbuckle.
Brent Venables saves his job
Venables could go from being on the hot seat to one of the best coaches in the country by season’s end.
Through his first four seasons since leaving Clemson and replacing Lincoln Riley, Venables is 22-17. The win column has to increase this year, albeit against one of the toughest schedules in the country. Oklahoma is set to face seven preseason top-25 teams — three of them in the top 10.
If he can somehow manage even a 9-3 campaign through that gauntlet, it has to be considered a major success by today’s standards. That record would likely be enough to get Oklahoma into the playoff, especially with strength of schedule now a factor for the committee.
Venables signed an extension ahead of last season, keeping him with the Sooners through 2029 on a deal worth $51.6 million, according to ESPN. Another extension seems unlikely, though he would still cash in with playoff bonuses.
Oklahoma makes the College Football Playoff, finishes in top 10
Venables has gone all in on the 2025 season. In doing so, it should pay off in a major way: with a College Football Playoff berth.
With the new 12-team format, this setup is perfect for a program like Oklahoma to slide in as an at-large bid while still having the chance to make some noise. That’s not to say the Sooners will reach the national championship, but simply getting into the playoff would be a huge step for a program that hasn’t seen much success over the past half-decade.
Oklahoma hasn’t had an AP top-10 finish since 2021, though it did close at No. 16 in the CFP rankings. This season, that will change.
