Two of the top six teams in the latest AP Top 25 are set to square off. Oregon is currently ranked sixth in the AP Poll, while also the top team in the College Football Power Rankings. Meanwhile, Penn State is ranked third in the AP Poll and fourth in the Power Rankings. One of these undefeated teams will come away with its first loss of the season, and bold predictions about the game are to be made.
Oregon enters the game sitting at 4-0, and 1-0 in conference play. They have not faced much of a test through the first third of the season. After dominating Montana State 59-13, Oregon helped usher in the end of the Mike Gundy era at Oklahoma State. The Ducks dominated the game, dismissing the Cowboys 69-3. Oregon took its first Big Ten win of the year in Week 3, beating Northwestern on the road 34-13. Then, in Week 4, it was a rivalry game at home, beating Oregon State 41-7. Now, the Ducks have their first major test of the season.
Meanwhile, Penn State is 3-0 on the year and has basically played warm-up games so far this year. The team opened up against Nevada, winning 46-10. Against FIU, the defense did not allow a point, winning 34-0. Then, Penn State faced an FCS opponent, as they took care of Villanova 52-6. The Nittany Lions are coming off an open week, and James Franklin knows improvement is needed if Penn State is going to defeat Oregon.
Penn State leans on the ground game
Penn State has been solid on offense this year. The team is ranked 18th in the nation in points per game, while sitting 41st in passing yards per game and 45th in rushing yards per game. Drew Allar was a potential Heisman candidate heading into the season, but he has not fully lived up to that this year. Allar has completed just 57 of 88 passes for 626 yards and four touchdowns. He has been protected well, with just three sacks and one interception. Still, he is passing for 7.1 yards per attempt this year.
The running game has been great overall. This is led by the combination of Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton. Allen has run 34 times this year for 273 yards. That is good for eight yards per attempt. He has also scored three times this year.
Meanwhile, Nicholas Singleton has run the ball 41 times on the season, going for 179 yards. He has scored five times on the ground, but is also a threat in a receiving game. Singleton has five receptions for 44 yards on the season.
The Oregon defense has been great this year, but much better against the pass. Oregon is 50th against the run this year, but second against the pass. While they have not faced a solid quarterback yet, expect Penn State to use the ground game to open up the pass to find some success against this defense.
Dante Moore puts himself as the Heisman front-runner
The Oregon offensive assault this year has been spectacular. The team is sixth in the nation in points per game and third in yards per play. The run attack has been solid, but Dante Moore has been amazing. He has led the Ducks to a 29th-ranked passing attack while being 106th in the nation in percentage of plays that are a pass. Further, the team is sixth in yards per pass.
Moore has completed 71 of 95 passes this year, good for a 74.7 percent completion rate. Further, he has thrown for 962 yards and 11 touchdowns. Negative plays have been few and far between for Moore. He has been intercepted just once and sacked just once as well. The quarterback can also scramble when needed. He has run 13 times for 96 yards, after removing sack yardage.
The Penn State pass defense has been solid this year, but has yet to face a quarterback of this caliber. With all the weapons Moore has at his disposal, he will spread the ball around and help Oregon win this game. A win against a top-ranked opponent with a solid showing will show he belongs as the frontrunner for the Heisman Trophy.
The White Out does not affect the Ducks
The Penn State White Out tradition began out of “Operation Visine.” Facing No. 7 Nebraska in 2002, Penn State encouraged fans to wear blue and not allow Nebraska fans to overrun the stadium with red. It worked, and Penn State won the game. Then, in 2004, in a down year for the program, the first White Out occurred, spurred by the success of the 2002 game.
A White Out does not ensure success for Penn State. The Nittany Lions are just 13-8 during White Out games. Further, the team is just 3-5 against top ten opponents in those games. Two of those wins are against Ohio State, and the other was the CFP First Round game against SMU.
Dan Lanning knows the pressure of preparing for a White Out. Oregon knows a thing or two about crowd noise. Normally, the noise is helping them, though. Where this will impact Oregon is third down conversions and the red zone. Oregon is 12th in the nation on third-down conversions this year, and the best in the nation in red zone scoring.
The Penn State defense has been solid in the red zone, sitting second in the nation, but is 40th in opponent third-down conversions. Adding in the fact that Penn State is 88th in third-down conversions on offense, that will be the difference in this game.
Oregon is going to have to deal with plenty of crowd noise, but converting early third downs and scoring in the red zone is going to quiet the crowd quickly.
