Vanderbilt football has just capped a 10-2 season with an impressive win over Tennessee. The team was ranked 14th in the Week 14 College Football Playoff Rankings, and after the impressive final win of the year, Vanderbilt is making a case for the College Football Playoff. The case has a lot of merit, and Vandy should be in the College Football Playoff.
The committee will be deciding not only seeding, but the seven at-large teams that will be making it to the playoffs. Five conference champions will be making the game. This will be the winners of the Big Ten, Big 12, and SEC, plus a non-power conference champion, most likely the champion of the American. Finally, either the ACC Champion or James Madison, if they win the Sun Belt and Duke wins the ACC, will clinch a spot.
The loser of the Big Ten will also be in the playoff. Oregon, Ole Miss, and Oklahoma also likely have playoff spots wrapped up, unless the committee punishes Ole Miss for Lane Kiffin leaving for LSU. This leaves just three spots available, and Vanderbilt should be getting one of those three spots.
What is the selection criterion?
Conference championships get the highest weight now, with five automatic bids, but other factors are also at play in deciding between similar teams. Strength of schedule, as well as their head-to-head competition, will play a role. Meanwhile, comparing outcomes of common opponents, as well as the strength of record, will come into account. There is also the current level of play, compared to the beginning of the season.
Vanderbilt is in a positive situation in almost every factor. They do have a loss to Alabama, which could bring head-to-head into play if Alabama loses the SEC championship. The other loss is to Texas, but with three losses, Texas is most probably not going to be in consideration. Still, in the rest of the criteria, Vanderbilt has a strong case.
How does Vanderbilt compare to others?
The argument for Vanderbilt making the playoffs starts with a look at the record they have. At 10-2, they have defeated four teams that were ranked at the time they played, South Carolina, LSU, Missouri, and finally Tennessee. Meanwhile, the two losses were both on the road, in close games, also to ranked teams in Alabama and Texas.
Meanwhile, according to ESPN, Vanderbilt currently ranks 22nd in the nation in strength of schedule. Of the teams currently in contention for a playoff spot, only Alabama, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, and Oregon are higher. Meanwhile, BYU is 35th, Notre Dame is 42nd, and Miami is 44th.
Strength of record is a new metric being used to compare teams. The metric is aimed at rewarding teams for beating high-quality opponents, while also minimizing the damage from a loss to a high-quality opponent. Vanderbilt currently ranks 11th in strength of record, ahead of Texas, Notre Dame, Miami, and Utah.
There is also the fact of how Vanderbilt has performed against expectations. Vanderbilt has been an underdog in five of the nine games against power conference teams. They are second in the nation in performance compared to the spread this season. Everything on the field suggests that Vanderbilt deserves to be in front of teams such as BYU, Notre Dame, and Miami, but two of those teams have national brand recognition, which could hurt Vanderbilt. This means they may need one more factor to give them the nod.
The Diego Pavia factor
Vanderbilt, in the resume that they handed out, noted that the CFP could be looking for ratings. At the end of the day, it is a television program that needs ratings to sell to advertisers and bring in money. Vanderbilt is not the biggest name among the teams vying for one of the final playoff spots, but they do have something the other teams do not, and that is Diego Pavia.
Pavia is a Heisman candidate and will likely be in New York for the Heisman ceremony. He also also been one of the most electric players in the nation. He has 3,192 yards passing this year, 12th in the nation, and more than any other quarterback currently in contention for a playoff spot, other than Drew Mestemaker of North Texas. The Vandy quarterback also has 27 touchdowns passing, which is tied for ninth in the nation. Only Mestemaker, Julian Sayin of Ohio State, and Fernando Mendoza of Indiana have more from teams competing for a CFP bid.
Moreover, Pavia is a major playmaker on the ground. His 826 rushing yards, 61st nationally and tenth among quarterbacks. He has also run for eight touchdowns on the ground.
Vanderbilt with Pavia could be reminiscent of Cam Skattebo and Arizona State from last season. The Peach Bowl between Arizona State and Texas averaged 17.3 million viewers, second among the quarterfinal match-ups. Vanderbilt, with the star power of Pavia and the quality offense to go with it, against another high-profile school, could easily bring in 17 million viewers.
When the committee looks at all the factors, the work on the field compared to other teams, the resume of Vanderbilt, and the entertainment they will bring to the games, they have to place Vanderbilt in the field as an at-large team.
