This is a matchup of two teams that really need a win here. The Bills are 1-2 in their last three contests, with both of those losses coming against teams they should have beaten with ease. As a result of those losses, Buffalo has fallen to second place in the AFC East behind the New England Patriots. Playing in a wild card game this year would be a disaster for the Bills, so they need to turn things around to avoid that.
For more insight on the Bills-Saints matchup in Week 12, listen below:
Meanwhile, the Saints are in danger of missing the playoffs entirely. New Orleans has lost three straight games, dropping their record to 5-5 on the year. Another loss here would tie the Saints with the likes of the Philadelphia Eagles and deal a huge blow to their playoff chances, so this game holds a lot of weight.
Here are the Bills-Saints odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NFL Odds: Bills-Saints Odds
Buffalo Bills: -5.5 (-110)
New Orleans Saints: +5.5 (-110)
Over: 46 (-110)
Under: 46 (-110)
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Why The Bills Could Cover The Spread
Despite their recent losses, the Bills are still one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL. Buffalo averages a whopping 273 passing yards per game, one of the best numbers in the league. New Orleans has actually struggled against opposing passing attacks, as they rank in the bottom ten in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game. The Saints also allow 7.2 yards per attempt, another one of the worst numbers in the league. Head coach Sean Payton's team will have plenty of trouble slowing down quarterback Josh Allen and the Bills here.
Buffalo has been one of the better teams in the NFL against the spread. The Bills are 5-4-1 ATS overall, but things look better for them when we look at this specific matchup. Buffalo is 2-0-1 against the spread after they lose, and they're also 3-2 ATS when they play on the road. Overall, this looks like a situation the Bills are comfortable in, and the bookmakers may not be doing enough to account for that.
Why The Saints Could Cover The Spread
While their defense has been fantastic for much of the year, the Bills just allowed 41 points to the Indianapolis Colts. The Colts aren't a particularly good offense, but they were able to run the football at will against Buffalo. The Saints happen to be one of the better rushing attacks in the league, averaging 119 ground yards per game. That number skyrockets whenever New Orleans plays at home, as they average an insane 143 rushing yards per game in the Superdome. Expect the Saints to follow Indianapolis's game plan and run the football at will.
Inconsistency kills teams, and the Bills have been one of the most inconsistent units in the league, particularly on offense. They were held to six points by the Jacksonville Jaguars and 15 points by the Colts, two defenses that had no business playing that well against them. It's certainly possible that Buffalo doesn't show up to play here, and if that happens the Saints have a chance to win outright.
Final Bills-Saints Prediction & Pick
The Bills have to be the pick here. New Orleans is on a bad three-game skid and Buffalo is still one of the most talented teams in the NFL.
Final Bills-Saints Prediction & Pick: Buffalo Bills: -5.5 (-110)