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The Green Bay Packers will take on the Detroit Lions to end the 2021 season. It's time to continue our NFL odds series and make a Packers-Lions prediction and pick.
These two teams couldn't have had more different seasons. The Packers dominated nearly every single team they faced, and they come into this game with the first seed in the NFC already secured. The Lions were one of the worst teams in the NFL this season, only earning their first win in early December against the Minnesota Vikings. There isn't much to play for besides pride here, but this should be an entertaining game nonetheless.
For more insight on the Packers-Lions matchup in Week 18, listen below:
Here are the odds for the Packers-Lions game, courtesy of FanDuel.
NFL Odds: Packers-Lions Odds
Green Bay Packers: -3 (-115)
Detroit Lions: +3 (-105)
Over: 44.5 (-110)
Under: 44.5 (-110)
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Why The Packers Could Cover The Spread
Head coach Matt LeFleur has already announced that his starters will take the field for at least some time in this game. That alone is a huge reason the Packers could cover. The talent gap between these two teams is enormous, and if the Green Bay starters take the field for even a half it should be enough to cover this spread. LeFleur hasn't announced how much his key players will play, but it shouldn't be less than a quarter. That gives Green Bay a huge edge in covering this spread.
When the Packers' backups do come in, they'll be playing against plenty of Detroit backups anyway. The Lions have been absolutely hammered by injuries and COVID absences, so they'll be missing plenty of key pieces in this one. Starting quarterback Jared Goff is questionable, and starting tackles Taylor Decker and Penei Sewell will both miss this game. All three of those players are crucial to Detroit's success, so the Packers have a huge advantage with all of them likely missing this game.
Why The Lions Could Cover The Spread
This pick really hinges around how much the Green Bay starters will play. They already have the first seed locked up no matter what, so they shouldn't play more than a half. It seems more likely that LeFleur pulls his players after a quarter, much like a preseason game. If that is the case, the Lions are essentially a lock as underdogs. They always play superior teams close, and this is the first game of the year where they'll be playing an inferior team for a majority of the game.
What makes the Lions even more enticing is the fact that they've been one of the best teams in the NFL against the spread. Detroit has earned a 10-6 record ATS so far, and a 5-2 record as the home team. The Packers are only 2-2 against the spread when they enter the game as a road favorite, so this looks like a decent spot to bet on the Lions despite the threat of Aaron Rodgers staying in all game to boost his MVP resume.
Final Packers-Lions Prediction & Pick
This game will be a risky pick no matter what. If the Green Bay starters play a half or more, the Packers are a lock, but if they play a quarter the Lions are a pretty safe bet. It seems more likely that Green Bay's starters only take the field for a quarter or so, so Detroit's spread and money line are both decent bets.
Final Packers-Lions Prediction & Pick: Detroit Lions +3 (-105)
