The college football regular season is over, which means the NFL is the only show in town this weekend. There are some great matchups, too, with the Bills traveling to Kansas City for a quarterback duel between Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen at Arrowhead Stadium. Dallas also hosts the Eagles in a game with major NFC East implications, These two games will be the highlights of the weekend, but there are plenty of other good games as well. Keep reading for my best NFL picks for this weekend!

Be sure to stay tuned to our NFL odds series for more on betting around the NFL.

All NFL odds courtesy of FanDuel.

NFL Odds: Houston Texans at New York Jets

Texans: -3.5 (-108)

Jets: +3.5 (-112)

This young Texans team, led by their star rookies on offense, is growing up right before our eyes. One way to tell when a team has truly arrived is when they begin winning games on the road. The next way is when they start being expected to win games on the road, and oddsmakers are expecting Houston to win this game. 

The next stage of growth is for the Texans to consistently win games that they should win on paper. This weekend will be a major test for Houston in that sense, and I believe that they are up to the task.

The Jets are good defensively against the pass, but for Houston to take the next step on their path toward being a true contender, they will need to prove that they can win these types of games.

NFL Pick: Texans -3.5 (-108)

NFL Odds: Jacksonville Jaguars at Cleveland Browns

Jaguars: +3 (-118); Jaguars moneyline (+124)

Browns: -3 (-104); Browns moneyline (-146)

This line appears to be operating under the assumption that Trevor Lawrence will be unable to play this week. If Lawrence is unable to go, this game appears to be priced fairly.

Lawrence has been listed as questionable, and it will likely be a game-time decision. Typically, when a player is listed as a game-time decision, especially if it is a game that matters, they are more likely to try and give it a go than they are to sit out. If there is any way at all for Lawrence to play, expect to see him on the field. If Lawrence is able to play, should be able to defeat this Browns team led by either Dorian Thompson-Robinson or Joe Flacco. Adding to Cleveland’s injury woes, star wideout Amari Cooper may miss the game, as the receiver is yet to clear concussion protocols.

If Lawrence is unable to suit up, this game will still likely be a toss-up. In such a situation, backing the underdog to win outright at plus-money odds is a long-term winning strategy.

This isn’t necessarily the type of bet that will win the majority of weeks, but if you can find bets like this consistently, this is the type of bet that will make you a profitable bettor in the long run.

NFL Pick: Jaguars moneyline (+124)

NFL Odds: Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs

Bills: +1.5 (-105)

Chiefs: -1.5 (-115)

It appears the books are overreacting to Kansas City’s recent loss. 

The Bills have built some positive momentum in recent weeks. Their bye week, which came unusually late in the season, ended up being the perfect time for them as it allowed Sean McDermott’s squad a chance to reset themselves, heal up from a laundry list of nagging injuries, and prepare for the stretch run of the season.

Buffalo has been extremely inconsistent this year, but when they are on, they can be as lethal as any team in the National Football League. Joe Brady can use the bye week to really settle into his role as offensive coordinator, figure out what works best for his team, and come up with a game plan to maximize his team’s strengths and put them in the best position to win.

Frustration has been building all year in Buffalo, but they have begun to put the pieces of the puzzle together lately and stack quality performances. Even in a tough loss to the Eagles, they still played a competitive game against an elite opponent, which is more than can be said for some of their other losses this year.

Buffalo has won in Kansas City in two consecutive seasons, and as they go for the three-peat, the Chiefs are looking more vulnerable than they have perhaps since Pat Mahomes took his first snap as their starting quarterback.

Ironically, however, while the Chiefs offense has been shakier this season than it’s ever been during the Mahomes era, Kansas City’s defense is also performing better than it ever has since Mahomes took over. 

It doesn’t appear that either team will be able to consistently make splash plays and gain chunk yardage the way they have in the past, which will likely lead to this being a lower-scoring, competitive contest rather than a shootout as these matchups have been in past seasons.

NFL Pick: Chiefs -1.5 (-115)

NFL Odds: Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys

Eagles: +3.5 (-118); Eagles moneyline (+158)

Cowboys: -3.5 (-102); Cowboys moneyline (-188)

The Eagles and Cowboys clash at Jerry World in Dallas this weekend, and the winner will have the inside track to win the NFC East crown. Both teams are excellent this year, and this is going to be a competitive game either way.

Dallas appears to be betting favorites due to home-field advantage. However, Philadelphia has been dominant on the road since Jalen Hurts took over at quarterback, with an astounding 14-2 record in their past 16 road games, which is good for a .875 winning percentage. They’ve also won two of their past three games against the Cowboys. Both of these trends should continue this weekend. 

Back the Eagles to win on the road and put themselves in an excellent position to all but lock up the NFC East.

NFL Pick: Eagles moneyline (+158)