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Everyone is sleeping on the 2023 Buffalo Bills. That was the narrative for Bills fans coming into this season. Fans and the media said the Kansas City Chiefs and Cincinnati Bengals were better, and the Miami Dolphins and New York Jets caught the AFC East winners. Bills fans liked that people were downplaying their team’s chances this year after coming into 2022 as the favorites. Now, after the Bills' stunning Week 1 overtime loss to Zach Wilson and the Jets that included four Josh Allen turnovers, there are some major causes for concern among even the staunchest Bills supporters.
3. Josh Allen’s turnovers
Josh Allen’s 178 total touchdowns are the most through five seasons in NFL history. At the same time, his now-84 turnovers in the last five seasons and one game are the most by any player in that timeframe.
In the Bills Week 1 loss to the Jets, Allen threw three soul-crushing interceptions and fumbled twice, losing one of them. There are a lot of factors that contributed to Buffalo choking up this game, but Allen’s turnovers are the most direct cause.
The QB took accountability for this after the game, saying he cost his team, and that’s an undeniable fact.
Allen plays hero ball way too much. He makes incredible plays, like the touchdown pass Monday night while crossing the line of scrimmage and an incredible shovel pass to get a first down. Still, his three picks, thrown directly into tight or double coverage are simply horrific throws that a sixth-year signal-caller shouldn’t be making.
Even his head coach, Sean McDermott, implored his QB to be smart about throws and sliding — not taking on defenders head-on — by pointing to his head multiple times in the game.
There is an argument to be made (see below) that this is as much the coaching staff and the general manager’s fault as it is the QB's for all the Josh Allen turnovers, but he needs to be better and play within himself more if the Bills hope to turn their season around.
2. The coaching is not good on both sides of the ball
Bills offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey is no Brian Daboll. The now-New York Giants head coach took Josh Allen from an undisciplined super-athlete and turned him into a Pro Bowl quarterback. He also got the best out of an offensive roster without a ton of playmakers.
Dorsey has not been able to keep that momentum going the last season-plus.
On Monday night, there was no creativity, no consistency, and no inspiration on the Bills offense. Dorsey too often ran James Cook — a speedy, undersized back — into the teeth of the excellent Jets defense. He also failed to get anything going with No. 2 WR Gabriel Davis or first-round pick Dalton Kincaid. It was a poor play-calling performance, and the Bills may need to do something about it sooner rather than later.
On the other side of the ball, Sean McDermott took over defensive play-calling after Leslie Frazier stepped away this offseason. Despite the new man in charge, the results were the same.
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The pass rush got to the QB a lot, it seemed, but the rushers had a hard time completing the sacks. And while the rush looked good at times, it was against one of the worst offensive lines in the league.
Overall, the defense couldn’t stop the run, as Breece Hall gashed the D for over 100 yards on two carries and rarely made a big play when needed.
In a lot of ways, the defense mirrored the offense with linebacker Matt Milano in the Josh Allen role. The star LB made some big plays, but he was also often undisciplined and out of position, leading to big plays from New York and ultimately the shocking Bills' Week 1 loss to the Jets.
1. Lack of talent on the Bills' roster
When a team bungles the NFL draft year after year, you know where it shows up first? On special teams. So, it’s no surprise the Bills lost their opener on a punt return in overtime. That is just another signal that the depth of talent on the Buffalo roster simply doesn’t stack up to other teams in the NFL.
Bills general manager Brandon Beane infamously hasn’t drafted a (first-team) Pro Bowler (Dawson Knox made it last year as an alternate) since his first draft with the team in 2018. And he should get credit for nailing that draft with superstar QB Josh Allen, Pro Bowl linebacker Tremaine Edmunds (who he’s since let go), starting defensive tackle Harrison Phillips (who now plays for the Vikings), starting cornerback Taron Johnson, and special teams ace Siran Neal.
However, since then, the drafting has been bad. Beane too often gives up picks to move up a few spots to guarantee he gets the player he’s in love with.
The GM has traded up to get Allen, traded up to get Edmunds, traded up to get CB Kaiir Elam last year — who was a healthy scratch in the Bills' Week 1 matchup vs. the Jets — and traded up to get TE Dalton Kincaid this year.
Beane has drafted poorly the last five years, and the Bills simply don’t have the depth of young talent on the roster that the rest of the league does. That shows up on special teams, it shows up with the inability to stop the run, and it shows up with a lack of reliable weapons on offense.
That combined with Allen’s turnovers and the poor coaching could make for a long season in Buffalo
