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Despite the loss of Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers superstar Aaron Rodgers will earn his sixth NFL MVP title.
Many may dismiss this idea, yet there is a clear way for Rodgers to win, though most simply cannot see it yet. It won't be easy, but Rodgers will almost certainly earn his third consecutive NFL MVP award this season.
There are many other candidates, of course. Fans could point to all of the NFL's young guns, including Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, and Josh Allen. Others may also dismiss Rodgers simply because of voter weariness.
Some may also point to the obvious — the departure of the NFL's finest receiver, Davante Adams. Is this enough completely derail Rodgers' MVP aspirations?
Davante Adams says Aaron Rodgers is the 🐐 pic.twitter.com/rWIqmwq99y
— PFF (@PFF) August 24, 2022
Adams, of course, was dealt to the Las Vegas Raiders and subsequently received a five-year, $141.25 million contract with his new team. In actuality, his departure might ironically result in Rodgers ending up with an MVP hat trick.
Let's discuss three reasons below.
Packers QB Aaron Rodgers 2022 NFL MVP
3. Rodgers elevates others
The Packers are 7-0 without Davante Adams since 2019. That's pretty amazing, considering how talented Adams is. On the flip side, it also reveals Aaron Rodgers' ability to elevate and improve players around him. Take note that Adams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling were released by the Packers.
Looking ahead to 2022, the Packers have so many new receivers. That will undoubtedly present a massive challenge. They did add second-round draft pick Christian Watson, fourth-round pick Romeo Doubs, and veteran Sammy Watkins to their roster. Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb are among the returnees.
That's serviceable. It's not stellar, but Rodgers can work with it.
If Rodgers can elevate this receiving corps, they will not only compensate for Adams' departure. Chances are, they will shock the world, and that will be a story difficult to top come award season.
2. Packers will win a ton
Another factor is that many consider the Packers' defense to be among the best in the league. Of course, Green Bay can also run the ball. They are, in fact, projected to win a large number of games.
Winning matters. MVPs play on winning teams. It's a winning formula. Because of this, Rodgers should get another piece of hardware.
Take note that the Packers are expected to win their division again this season. Minnesota and Chicago have new head coaches, and it will undoubtedly be an adjustment year for those teams. The Lions, well, won't really be in the mix. Detroit has never won the NFC North division championship, and that won't happen in 2022.
This division is the Packers' to lose, and they won't. In each of the previous three seasons, they have won 13 games while winning the division title. Assuming the Packers win another 12-13 games, Rodgers will certainly be at the top of the MVP race.
1. Narrative matters
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Brett Favre, who led the Green Bay Packers from 1995 to 1997, was the only player to ever three-peat as NFL MVP.
It will be extremely difficult for Rodgers to replicate what his former teammate and predecessor achieved in the 1990s.
But it's possible.
One can argue that Rodgers has already approached Mount Rushmore status, having earned the MVP four times (2011, 2014, 2020, and 2021). Rodgers joins an exclusive group of champions who have won three or more MVPs in. I mean, only Peyton Manning has more MVP awards than Aaron Rodgers with five.
Getting #5 makes for a great narrative, and the narrative does matter.
#️⃣3️⃣ for the MVP. @AaronRodgers12 | #NFLTop100 pic.twitter.com/5O9wkHXVQS
— Green Bay Packers (@packers) August 29, 2022
It's not enough to pile up empty numbers to win MVP. Last year, Tampa Bay quarterback Tom Brady dominated the stat sheet. In fact, he had more touchdowns and yards than Rodgers, but the GOAT came nowhere near to winning the MVP.
Brady had 43 touchdowns to Rodgers' 37, and Brady had 5,316 yards, over 1,200 yards more than Rodgers.
Still, Rodgers was the clear winner, receiving 39 of the 50 votes cast by the AP jury. Brady received only 10 votes, while Rams WR Cooper Kupp received one.
Brady didn't win for one simple reason. Voters highlight the degree of difficulty and quality of victory. Who did you beat when it came to putting up those huge numbers? It all funnels into the MVP narrative.
Last season, the Packers had a couple of big wins. They traveled into the desert and defeated the unbeaten Cardinals (7-0 at the time). Rodgers also defeated the 49ers on the road after regaining possession with 37 seconds remaining and trailing. It was a Sunday night contest that took NFL fans all over the nation by surprise. These are the moments that breed legendary status in a single season. These are the make-or-break narrative elements.
Rodgers, of course, had the numbers to manifest the narrative. He was the first quarterback to lead the league in TD passes, completion percentage, passer rating, and interception percentage (1.0) in the same season since 1992. That was when Steve Young earned the first of his two MVPs.
Davante Adams' departure actually contributes to Rodgers' MVP narrative as well. So even with the star WR gone, Rodgers should still be an MVP favorite in 2022.
