The Kansas City Chiefs have been a playoff team in every season since 2015. They have been the most consistent and dominant team in the league, winning the Super Bowl three times and getting there on two other occasions.
The 2025 season is quite another story. After their Week 14 Monday night loss to the Houston Texans, they are sitting in third place in the AFC West with a 6-7 record. They are out of the playoff structure. They are not going to catch the first place Denver Broncos who sit in first place with an 11-2 record. The Broncos have won 10 games in a row, and the top spot is completely out of the question for head coach Andy Reid and quarterback Patrick Mahomes.
The three AFC teams sitting in the Wild Card spots with four games to go in the regular season are the Los Angeles Chargers (9-4), Buffalo Bills (9-4) and the Texans (8-5).
The Indianapolis Colts have (8-5) fallen out of a playoff position as they have lost three games in a row and lost starting QB Daniel Jones to an Achilles injury. They have made a seemingly desperate move by signing 44-year-old Philip Rivers out of retirement to try to rescue their season. Rivers has not played since he concluded his 17-year career in 2020. Rivers played 16 seasons with the Chargers before concluding his career with the Colts.
The Baltimore Ravens and Miami Dolphins have the same 6-7 record the Chiefs have. The Ravens are ahead of the Chiefs in the standings because their 4-5 record against AFC opponents is better than Kansas City's.
Chiefs in big hole, but they are not dead
There is a scenario that would allow the Chiefs to potentially get back into playoff contention. Since they are three games behind the Chargers, the Chiefs would have to go 4-0 while the Chargers would have to go 1-3 for Kansas City to have a chance.
If the Chiefs finished tied with the Chargers, the tiebreaker would be a slim possibility for Kansas City. The Chiefs have games remaining with the Chargers, Titans, Broncos and Raiders. Victories in all of them would give them a 10-6 record and a 7-5 conference mark.
If the Chargers won one of their remaining games — they face the Chiefs, Cowboys, Texans and Broncos — that would give them a 10-6 record as well. They would split the season series with the Chiefs and would have the same division record as Kansas City if the Chargers lost to the Broncos in the regular-season finale.
However, the Chargers have a 5-3 record against opponents in common, while the Chiefs are 3-4. The Chargers could fall to 5-5 in that category with losses to the Chiefs and Broncos, while the Chiefs would improve to 6-4 if they could beat the Chargers, Broncos and Raiders.
The scenario does not seem realistic for a couple of reasons. The Chiefs would have to beat the Chargers in Week 14 after losing 4 of their last 5 games and then they would have to follow up with a win over the streaking Broncos in Week 16. The idea that the Chiefs will sweep the Chargers and Broncos is a long shot at best.
Passing the Texans would require the Chiefs to go 4-0 while Houston goes 1-3. The Texans have a two-game lead over the Chiefs but they also hold the tiebreaker since they beat the Chiefs head to head.
Houston's closing schedule against the Cardinals, Raiders, Chargers and Colts, so the likelihood of the Texans going 1-3 is a major longshot.
Chiefs no longer have explosive offense
During the prime years of their run, the Chiefs had the most explosive offense in the NFL. That has not been the case in recent years. The Chiefs rank 11th as they are scoring 24.2 points and averaging 367.1 yards per game. Defensively, they are allowing 19.5 points per game, ranking 7th in the league.
Both figures are decent, but they are not at a championship level any more. Mahomes is no longer putting prolific numbers on the board. He has completed 299 of 474 passes for 3,398 yards with 22 TDs and 10 interceptions. He has also run for 407 yards and 4 touchdowns, but he has taken big hits throughout his career and he may be running out of fantastic finishes.
Travis Kelce is his leading receiver with 60-727-5. He is still a capable pass catcher and play maker, but the explosive nature of the Chiefs offense is no longer a reality.
The chances of the Chiefs making the playoffs are not great, but the possibility still exists.
