The Miami Dolphins (8-5) host the New England Patriots (6-7) at Hard Rock Stadium in Week 15.  New England won the first matchup, defeating its AFC East rivals 21-11 in Week 11.

The Dolphins look drastically different entering Sunday’s rematch. Miami played underwhelming on defense when the two teams last met, but now its defense is among the NFL’s best. The Dolphins rank No. 2 in scoring defense—surrendering 18.2 points per contest—and are tied with the Pittsburgh Steelers for the most takeaways in the NFL with 25. They have forced a turnover in every game this season and 19 consecutive contests dating back to last season.

On offense, they are led by rookie quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who supplanted Ryan Fitzpatrick in Week 8. Tagovailoa has posted a 4-2 record as a starter, throwing nine TDs against just one interception.

Sunday’s divisional showdown has a different feel to it for another reason—the Dolphins are actually favored. Miami is 2.5 point home favorites. The Patriots had been favored against the Dolphins 13 consecutive times and 32 out of the last 34 meetings. The last time Miami was favored was back in Week 15 of the 2013 season.

The underdog Patriots’ playoff hopes are hanging on by a thread. They must win their final three contests and get a lot of help from opposing teams in the upcoming weeks. First things first, they must complete the sweep of the Dolphins, who are also on the outside looking in for the AFC playoff picture despite being three games over .500. With that in mind, here are four predictions ahead of Sunday’s tilt.

1. Patriots thwart Tua

The Patriots have won their last nine games against rookie quarterbacks. Head coach Bill Belichick has a 21-5 record in his career against rookie signal callers. The last rookie quarterback to beat the Belichick-led Patriots was Geno Smith in 2013, then quarterbacking the New York Jets.

Two weeks ago, the Patriots stymied Justin Herbert, the odds-on favorite to nab the Offensive Rookie of the Year. The Los Angeles Chargers quarterback had the worst game of his young career. Herbert completed 26-of-49 passes, a career-worst 49.1 completion percentage, with two interceptions in a 45-0 defeat.

Tua Tagovailoa might not fare as poorly as Herbert, but the Dolphins rookie quarterback will struggle against the Patriots on Sunday. He could be playing without his favorite target, tight end Mike Gesicki. Gesicki suffered a shoulder injury in last Sunday’s contest versus Kansas City and his status is uncertain for Week 15. Gesicki has corralled four TDs in the past three contests, including two last week.

Tagovailoa has a challenging task ahead of him, as the Dolphins are limited in their pass-catching options—with or without Gesicki—against a talented New England secondary. Given the Patriots ability to handle rookie quarterbacks, the Dolphins signal caller is due for a setback performance.

2. Cam Newton rushes for another TD

Cam Newton, Patriots

If there’s one way to exploit Miami’s elite defense, it’s via the ground attack. Miami's rushing defense ranks 22nd in the league, yielding 120.2 yards per contest.

Patriots quarterback Newton produced a season-high 15 rush attempts for 75 yards and two TDs in the Week 1 victory over the Dolphins. While he should not be expected to replicate that yardage total, he can certainly find the end zone on Sunday.

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Newton ranks third in the NFL in rushing touchdowns with 11, the most among quarterbacks. Only superstar running backs Derrick Henry and Dalvin Cook (14 TDs apiece) have logged more rushing scores.

Look for Newton to reach paydirt for the 12th time this season.

3. New England’s passing woes continue

While Newton may be getting it done on the ground, the Patriots’ inept passing offense has not gone unnoticed. Despite the NFL being a pass-heavy league, Newton has mustered just five passing TDs all season.

As a team, the Patriots have collected 8 passing scores in 2020—the fewest in football. On the flip side, the Dolphins have allowed only 16 passing touchdowns this season, the second-fewest in the NFL.

Furthermore, the Dolphins did a solid job against superstar Kansas Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes last week. Despite the loss, they intercepted the reigning Super Bowl MVP three times. Remarkably, it was just the second time in his career he threw three picks. Even more incredible, Mahomes entered the contest with just two interceptions for the entire season.

The Patriots lack a true No. 1 receiving option. Newton has been inaccurate with his throws, especially of late, and there’s no reason to believe that will change against Miami.

4. Patriots upset the Dolphins

The Patriots have not swept the Dolphins since 2016. The two teams have split the season series each of the past three years and six of the past seven seasons.

However, the Patriots will find a way to beat the Dolphins on Sunday and complete the sweep of their division foe. This should be a low-scoring affair, as the over/under is set at 41.5 points. The under has a great chance of hitting in this AFC East showdown.

New England defeats Miami and delivers a blow to its rivals’ playoff chances.