The New England Patriots are looking to make NFL history on Sunday at Super Bowl LX. With a win over the Seattle Seahawks, the Patriots will have won seven Super Bowl titles, breaking a tie with the Pittsburgh Steelers for the most ever. But it will be no easy feat.
The Seahawks are 4.5-point favorites in Vegas, and for good reason. Statistically, both New England and Seattle boast similar numbers on offense and defense, but the latter has done it against much better competition.
If the Patriots are going to pull off the upset, they need to win particular matchups. But when I sat and tried to think of Patriots' X-factors, as important as Drake Maye is, his name does not come to mind.
The Patriots have already proven this postseason that they can win with him, not only not playing well, but playing poorly. He fumbled six times in two playoff games, while also throwing two interceptions. So, he is not the X-factor.
The reason they won those games was because of their defense. That happens to be where we find the Patriots' X-factor for Super Bowl LX against the Seahawks.
Patriots DT Milton Williams is crucial to success
This past offseason, the Patriots were very aggressive in free agency. They signed linebacker Robert Spillane, who led the team in tackles this year. They also brought in veterans Harold Landry III and Carlton Davis III (yes, both men are coincidentally the third of their namesake).
But there was no bigger move than signing defensive end Milton Williams.
Williams was coming off a Super Bowl win, where he sacked Patrick Mahomes twice in a Philadelphia Eagles rout, 40-22. He and Josh Sweat dominated that football game. But Williams is more far than a pass rusher.
He is an excellent run defender, and the proof is in the pudding.
The 6-foot-3, 290 lb. edge is bigger than most you'll find on the outside. But he is incredibly agile with great hands, which allows him to shed blockers and blow up rushing plays. He does not always end up with the tackle, but his ability to get into the backfield quickly often forces the opposing running back to change directions.
The Seahawks lost running back Zach Charbonnet for the season with injury. That means Kenneth Walker III (yes, he is hilariously also the third) will get nearly all of the carries.
Walker III is an explosive player that can take anything to the house. But he also takes a lot of chances, reversing course and losing a lot of yardage. If Williams continues to do what he's done all season, there is a very good chance that happens here.
Patriots' Rush Defense
During the first 10 weeks of this regular season, the Patriots were ranked inside the top five in rushing yards allowed. But Williams then suffered an ankle injury in Week 11 vs. the New York Jets. Over the next five games, New England's rush defense plummeted.
They allowed 166 yards per game on the ground. That was against the Cincinnati Bengals, New York Giants, Buffalo Bills, Baltimore Ravens, and New York Jets.
In Week 18, Williams returned against the Miami Dolphins.
In the four games since his return, the Patriots have allowed 69 rushing yards per game. That is the best in the NFL during that time.
There is no chance that it is a coincidence.
If you do not hear the Super Bowl announcers saying Williams' name during the game, the Patriots will truly be a long shot to win this game.
