The Miami Dolphins are widely expected to move on from Tua Tagovailoa this offseason, but experts are skeptical about whether Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson will be the replacement with the 11th overall pick.
During a segment on the NFL on ESPN, analyst Jordan Reid argued that selecting Simpson at that position is too early, as he is considered a mid-to-late first-rounder. Reid noted that while Simpson is a highly intelligent player and the son of a coach, he lacks overwhelming physical traits and requires a specific environment with top-tier surrounding talent to succeed.
Despite the skepticism from some scouts, a report from the New York Times suggests that Simpson’s draft stock may be more secure than many realize.
With the NFL landscape shifting, Aaron Rodgers is expected to stay in Pittsburgh, and Malik Willis has been linked to Cleveland or Arizona, but Simpson has reportedly received a firm first-round promise from an unnamed team.
This guarantee was significant enough to persuade him to forgo lucrative NIL opportunities and a potential fifth year at Alabama.
With Heisman winner Fernando Mendoza essentially locked in as the top pick for the Raiders, this promise ensures that Simpson will likely be the next major player to go in a quarterback market that is quickly becoming crowded.
This high draft expectation aligns with the “truth bomb” dropped by ESPN analyst Dan Orlovsky, who claimed that Simpson's performance in the first eight games of the 2025 season was actually more impressive than Mendoza's.
While Mendoza's stock soared during Indiana’s national championship run, Simpson’s early-season accuracy and dominance against SEC defenses demonstrated his elite potential.
Although a late-season slump brought some criticism, the impressive statistics he produced early on have clearly been enough to convince an NFL franchise to commit a first-round pick to his future.
