For most of the season, the Seattle Seahawks and the Los Angeles Rams have looked like arguably the two best teams in the NFL. Both NFC West heavyweights have taken turns blowing out inferior competition, and both enter Week 11 tied for first place in the division at 7-2.
Now, the two teams will finally face off for the first of two meetings this year, both of which will certainly have massive implications on how the NFC playoff picture looks and feels during the back half of the season. Both Seattle and Los Angeles have plenty of momentum coming into this game after blowing out the Arizona Cardinals and the San Francisco 49ers in Week 10, respectively.
The two will also square off in Week 16 in prime time, but this is the first time everyone will get a look at the matchup of two red-hot contenders. The winner will have the upper hand in the NFC West race heading into the back half of the season, so this game will be critical for both teams moving forward.
While both the Seahawks and the Rams were expected to be in playoff contention this season, both have exceeded expectations as legitimate Super Bowl contenders. So, how will this matchup look and what will decide it?
Can the Rams get after Sam Darnold?
Sam Darnold has continued his career resurgence this season with the Seahawks this season and is an MVP candidate just past the halfway point. The former No. 3 overall pick is leading the most efficient passing offense in the NFL this season and is a big reason the Seahawks are outperforming expectations.
The counting numbers aren't at the top of the league for Darnold, largely because the Seahawks have been in control of a lot of their wins in the second half and they have been killing a lot of clock. However, his efficiency numbers are the best in football. The USC product leads the NFL by a mile in completion percentage over expected and is also the leader in EPA per dropback. When he has dropped back to pass this season, there's an argument to be made that nobody can be better.
However, there's still a chance for the other shoe to drop. Darnold was viewed as a bust during his time with the New York Jets and the Carolina Panthers before a stint as the 49ers backup. Following that, he ended up starting for the injured JJ McCarthy with the Minnesota Vikings in 2024. He played very well until the very end of the season before turning back into a pumpkin in the playoffs against none other than the Los Angeles Rams.
Now, Darnold will get a chance to exorcise those demons on Sunday with first place in the division on the line. However, it won't be easy to get through a Rams defense that has been one of the best in football so far this season.
Chris Shula's defense comes into this game ranked fifth in the NFL in EPA per pass allowed this season, and it has done that despite the pressure rate and sack rate both being just slightly above the league average. However, as the Rams showed in the playoffs last season, the best way to get mistakes out of Darnold is to heat him up.
When Darnold is under pressure, he is prone to putting the ball in harm's way, taking bad sacks and giving the defense chances to create turnovers. If he does that on Sunday, it will be a long afternoon for the Seahawks.
However, Seattle has used both an improved offensive line and clever game plans from offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak to keep Darnold from being pressured all that often in 2025. Only three quarterbacks have been pressured on a lower percentage of their dropbacks than Darnold according to Next Gen Stats, which has been a huge part of the Seahawks' success.
Jared Verse and Byron Young have terrorized opposing offensive lines all season long, and the Rams will need that to continue if they want to get a win at home on Sunday.
Can the Seahawks force obvious passing situations?
On the other side of the ball, Matthew Stafford is having the best statistical season of any quarterback in football. His efficiency numbers aren't far behind Darnold's, and he has the best counting stats of anyone in the league. Through nine games, Stafford has thrown for 25 touchdowns and just two interceptions while leading all qualified passers in yards per game.
Sean McVay has shifted his offensive philosophy a little bit since deploying the 11-personnel heavy team that won the Super Bowl a couple of years ago. Now, the Rams complement Puka Nacua and Davante Adams on the outside with a lot of 12-personnel sets with two tight ends in the game.
That's what makes this matchup so fascinating. The goal when the Rams put an extra tight end on the field is to force the defense to put an extra linebacker in the game, which makes it easier for Stafford and company to throw the ball. However, with the addition of rookie defensive back Nick Emmanwori, who spends a lot of his time in the nickel and down in the box, the Seahawks almost never play base personnel. As a result, this will be a fascinating chess match between Sean McVay and Mike Macdonald.
Even while playing so many sub packages, the Seahawks still boast arguably the best run defense in football. Seattle trails only the Cleveland Browns in EPA per rush allowed, and they're doing it while selling out to stop the pass in the back seven. The Seahawks play with light boxes, classified as six or less defenders in the box, on 51.3% of their snaps, which is the third-highest clip in the NFL according to Next Gen Stats. Despite that, they have still been very effective at stopping the run.
The Rams have run the ball efficiently this season, but they have not been able to generate very many explosive plays on the ground. However, if that well dries up in this game and Stafford is forced to throw in obvious passing situations, it could get muddy.
There are some big injuries to watch out for on this side of the ball. Ernest Jones IV, one of the better coverage linebackers in football, was limited in practice on Thursday after missing Week 10 with a knee injury. Davante Adams was also limited for Los Angeles due to an oblique injury.
Stafford, Adams and Nacua are good enough to throw the ball on anybody no matter the down and distance. However, getting into long down-and-distances allows Macdonald to muddy the coverage, even though Seattle has not been blitzing a lot.
This side of the ball has the chance to be the ultimate chess match between two of the best play-calling minds in the sport, and it may very well decide this game and the NFC West race this season.
