The Week 12 clash between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Chicago Bears is a measuring stick for two teams fighting to legitimize their playoff hopes. Pittsburgh enters at 6-4. They sit atop a tight AFC North race. However, the likely absence of Aaron Rodgers casts a massive shadow over their offensive outlook. Chicago, meanwhile, has reinvented itself under first-year head coach Ben Johnson. They enter with a three-game win streak behind a feisty defense and a confident young quarterback. Soldier Field is never friendly to visitors, too. In late November, it becomes even more unforgiving. That's something Pittsburgh must embrace if they hope to escape with a season-defining win.
Surging Bears, wounded Steelers
The Steelers hit the road off a dominant 34-12 win over the Bengals. Their world, though, looks very different heading into Week 12. They will potentially miss Rodgers's veteran poise and ability to command the huddle. That's after he suffered a left wrist injury. That thrusts Mason Rudolph back into the spotlight. Yes, he is a steady hand. That said, he also limits Pittsburgh’s downfield explosiveness. Pittsburgh’s best path to victory rests on its defense. They have regained form in recent weeks and must now take the fight to a dynamic Bears offense.
Chicago, at 7-3 and leading the NFC North, has fully embraced a new identity. With a league-leading +16 turnover differential, they are thriving by stealing possessions and capitalizing on short fields. Defensive coordinator Dennis Allen has the Bears playing with swagger. On offense, Caleb Williams continues to gain comfort in Johnson’s balanced system. Against a Steelers offense missing its star quarterback, Chicago smells blood. The Bears enter with momentum and advantage in every phase.
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Here we will look at and discuss some bold predictions for the game between the Bears and the Steelers in Week 12 of the 2025 NFL season.
Mason Rudolph delivers efficient performance
Rudolph will play in Rodgers' absence. He has shown he can be the epitome of efficient, poised quarterback play when protected. Against Cincinnati, Rudolph completed 12 of 16 passes with a touchdown and no turnovers. That's exactly the type of clean performance Pittsburgh needs.
In frigid conditions at Soldier Field, with the Bears’ defense thriving on takeaways, Rudolph’s job isn’t to be spectacular. He just has to be mistake-free. Expect heavy involvement from tight ends and running backs in the passing game and a conservative approach designed to shorten the game. Rudolph avoids turnovers entirely and finishes with a completion rate over 70 percent. That would give the Steelers just enough stability to stay competitive.
Steelers pass rush held back
The Steelers’ pass rush has come alive in recent weeks. Chicago’s offensive line, though, has also taken major strides. Johnson schemed beautifully in recent wins, leaning on quick-hitting passes, misdirection runs, and designed rollouts for Williams. Those concepts are tailor-made to counter Pittsburgh’s aggressive edge pressure.
Expect Chicago to mix tempo, use motion, and force Pittsburgh’s defense to play horizontally. With quick releases and smart protection calls, the Bears will keep their star quarterback clean on most snaps. The Steelers will eventually get to Williams. However, they will tally no more than one sack. Big names like Tj Watt and Alex Highsmith will not wreck the game.
DK Metcalf contained
Without Rodgers under center, Pittsburgh’s passing game loses its explosive element. That means the Bears can key in on DK Metcalf. He has historically struggled against secondaries that challenge him at the line. Expect bracket coverage, press-man alignments, and plenty of safety help from the Bears. They will routinely smother downfield opportunities. Yes, Metcalf may tally short receptions. That said, the Bears will erase the deep-ball threat. Metcalf will fall short of 60 receiving yards, with zero plays exceeding 20 yards.
Steelers’ run game sputters
If Pittsburgh hopes to win this game, they must run the ball. However, the matchup is brutal. Chicago’s run defense has allowed just 37 points total over the last two weeks. It has been one of the most physical fronts in football. Jaylen Warren is shifty and explosive, but the Steelers’ offensive line has been wildly inconsistent in run blocking.
As the Bears build early leads through efficient offense, Pittsburgh will be forced away from the ground game and into predictable passing situations. From there, Chicago’s front seven takes over. The Steelers finish under 80 rushing yards. No runner surpasses 40 yards individually.
Steelers fall to 6-5
With Rodgers unlikely to play, Pittsburgh faces a steep climb. Williams is improving weekly, and the Bears are forcing turnovers at an elite rate. The Soldier Field environment will also be hostile. The Steelers’ defense may keep them in it early. Still, Chicago’s ability to generate explosive plays will ultimately decide the outcome. Chicago wins 23–16, sending the Steelers home at 6-5 and tightening the AFC North race.
Final thoughts
If the Steelers steal this game without Aaron Rodgers, it will rank among their most impressive wins of the season. That said, the Bears are confident and well-coached. Right now, they simply look like the more complete football team. Soldier Field will roar, and Chicago will ride the momentum to a statement victory.
