This is a game between two division leaders and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-4)have a huge challenge on their hands as they travel more than 3,000 miles to face a team that may be the best in the NFC. While Philadelphia Eagles fans may raise their voices in protest, the Los Angeles Rams (8-2) have been a bit more consistent and the arrow appears to be going up.
The Bucs are trying to hold off the Carolina Panthers in the NFC South, and they are not coming into this game with any positive momentum. They have lost two in a row to the New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills and three of their last four games. The defense has been exposed, as Drake Maye led the Patriots to four touchdowns in Week 10 and Josh Allen came through with an MVP effort as he threw 3 TD passes and ran for 3 more scores in a 44-32 victory.
Matthew Stafford is not going to run for three touchdowns against the Bucs, but he is having a brilliant season and he could pick apart the Tampa Bay defense. That means Baker Mayfield may have to come through with his best effort of the season if the Bucs are going win this game and come up with an upset on the road.
Bucs must get big game from Baker Mayfield
Mayfield turned his career around during a brief 5-game stint with the Rams in the 2022 season. Rams head coach Sean McVay rescued him from the NFL scrap heap after the Cleveland Browns and Panthers had deemed Mayfield as unworthy. The quarterback did enough with the Rams for the Bucs to bring him aboard, and he had back-to-back Pro Bowl seasons in 2023 and '24. He is on track for another Pro Bowl nod this season.
Mayfield has a brilliant receiver in Emeka Egbuka as his top target. He should also get wideout Chris Godwin (fibula) back for this game and that could make a huge difference. The Bucs are going to need Mayfield to be at his best, and that means he must win the matchup against the Rams secondary.
Mayfield has completed 216 of 340 passes for 2,365 yards and a 17-3 touchdown to interception ratio. Egbuka has made a series of eye-catching plays this season for the Bucs. He will need to hit the Rams defense early with a big play. Egbuka has caught 45-717-6 and he has a long reception of 77 yards.
The Rams pass defense is coming off a 4-interception game against Sam Darnold and the Seahawks. To avoid that kind of fate, Mayfield must do an outstanding job of looking off safeties Kam Curl and Kamren Kinchens. This is one of Mayfield's strengths and he will be put to one of his greatest tests by Los Angeles.
If the Bucs are going to have a legitimate chance of pulling off the upset, Mayfield must win his matchup against the Rams defense. He must deliver at least 3 touchdowns — 2 passing, 1 running — and he can't throw more than 1 interception.
Solid defensive effort is needed to contain Stafford
It would be too much to ask the Tampa Bay defense to shut down Stafford in this game. The triggerman has been on fire all season and he is the favorite to win the league's Most Valuable Player award this season.
Stafford has been healthy and he has completed 223 of 338 passes for 2,447 yards with a spectacular 27-2 touchdown to interception ratio. He puts the ball where his receivers can catch it and the opponents defensive backs do not have an opportunity to intercept the ball.
The Rams have an extraordinary 1-2 punch at wide receiver with Puka Nacua and Davante Adams. Nacua is an excellent route runner with strength and he has caught 73-850-4, while Adams has caught 43-569-10.
The Bucs are going to have to find a way to limit Stafford in this game, and that means the secondary has to provide ironclad coverage. Nickel back Jacob Parrish could be one of the key performers in head coach Todd Bowles' defense against the Rams. Parrish is not a superstar, but he is an effective defender who could rise to the occasion against the Rams' receiving crew.
Parrish has 44 tackles, 2.0 sacks, 7 tackles for loss, 4 passes defensed and 1 interception. Stafford and offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur may look at Parrish as a player the offense can attack, but Parrish has the ability to prove them wrong and limit the success the Rams have in this game.
If Mayfield and Parrish are successful, the Bucs will have their best chance to pull off an upset in this game.
