The Buffalo Bills smoked the Pittsburgh Steelers 26-7 on Sunday, moving to 8-4 on the season. Bouncing back from a brutal Thursday loss to the Houston Texans, Buffalo got a huge boost to their playoff odds. But Pittsburgh lost an opportunity to take the lead in the AFC North. What do the playoff odds look like for both the Bills and the Steelers heading into Week 14?
The Athletic puts pressure on the Steelers' Week 14 matchup
Unsurprisingly, the Steelers' odds took a tumble after Sunday's loss to the Bills. According to The Athletic's playoff odds, Pittsburgh has just a 29% chance of making the playoffs. The only chance they have of making it, especially after losing to Buffalo, is by winning the AFC North. At 6-6, they are tied with the Ravens and two games up on the Bengals in the division.
The Steelers play the Ravens for the first time this season in Week 14. If they win, The Athletic says they have a 63% chance of making the dance. A loss would tumble their odds down to 17%. But the Bengals are the berzerker in this division, with a healthy Joe Burrow driving the ship. They are rooting for a split between the two teams, with the second matchup coming in Week 18.
After Week 6, the Steelers were 4-1 after beating the Browns. That game sent Cleveland to 1-5, the Ravens were 1-5, and the Jake Browning-led Bengals were 2-4. It seemed like Aaron Rodgers could coast to a ten-win season and a division title. But now, they are fighting for the nine wins it may take to secure a playoff berth.
The Bills are a near-lock to earn Wild Card spot
The Bills are now 8-4 with a massive matchup against the Bengals coming up in Week 14. Their loss to the Texans is the only thing keeping them from being a complete lock to make the AFC Wild Card. They are now one game up on Houston, but do not have the tiebreaker. So a few wins to pull away from Houston would send Buffalo to the dance once again.
According to The Athletic, they have an 89% chance of making the playoffs. A win against the Bengals would shoot them up to 95%. But Josh Allen and the Bills have a division title to defend, having won five consecutive AFC East titles. The Patriots will be hard to catch, but there is a path for Buffalo.
The most important piece of catching the Patriots is beating them in Foxboro in Week 15. Even if New England wins on Monday Night, Buffalo would have a 9% chance to win the AFC East. A win over the Giants would put the Patriots at 11-2, 2.5 games above the Bills. New England is on bye in Week 14, so two consecutive wins for Buffalo would pull the Bills within one game of Drake Maye's squad.
AFC playoff picture taking shape in December
The AFC playoffs will look very different this season when compared to the first half of the 2020s. The Bills are likely going on the road in the first round, and the Kansas City Chiefs may not make it at all. This win for Buffalo blocked the path even further for their hated rivals in Kansas City. At 6-6, they are two games back of the Bills, who own the final spot.
The Bills will have their eyes on the AFC East, as unlikely as the division title seems right now. Winning that division could earn them the bye in the first round, which felt impossible less than two weeks ago when they lost to the Texans. The Texans and Colts are fighting for Wild Card spots, as are the Chargers and Chiefs. But the Steelers are unlikely to make the Wild Card after this dreadful loss.
