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The Anaheim Ducks had a quiet NHL Free Agency period this summer. Anaheim signed a lot of their own players. For instance, the Ducks inked Jackson LaCombe to a two-year contract in the offseason. However, most of the team's roster additions came through trade.
The Ducks traded for Robby Fabbri in a move with the Detroit Red Wings. This move freed up cap space for Detroit while giving Anaheim more forward depth. On the back end, the Ducks made a move to get Brian Dumoulin from the Seattle Kraken. Dumoulin brings a veteran presence for a rather youthful defense.
Anaheim has a lot of work to do if they want to improve in 2024-25. The Ducks have breakout candidates on the roster given the number of prospects challenging for NHL ice time. Having said this, let's take a look at two regression candidates on Anaheim's roster as the offseason nears its end.
Radko Gudas could decline
Radko Gudas signed with the Ducks last summer as part of an effort to add leadership to the roster. Gudas joined former Tampa Bay Lightning star Alex Killorn in Southern California in NHL Free Agency. Killorn had a bit of a rough time in his debut season. Gudas, though, left quite the first impression.
Gudas became one of the team's most reliable defensemen in 2023-24. In fact, he finished the 2023-24 campaign with the second-highest amount of average time on ice among Anaheim defensemen, according to ESPN. Jamie Drysdale did average over 20 minutes a game, but he played 10 games before a trade to the Philadelphia Flyers.
Gudas made a strong all-around impact this past season. He led all Ducks players in Defensive Goals Above Replacement (7.6), according to Evolving Hockey. This is 4 DGAR more than the next-best total on the team. Additionally, Gudas led all Anaheim defenders in Offensive Goals Above Replacement (7.1).
These are solid numbers, but these totals represent overperformances compared to his expected total. For instance, he finished with 4.4 xOGAR and 4.3 xDGAR in 2023-24. Gudas also outperformed his WAR by nearly one win, as well.
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Gudas certainly brings value to a team like Anaheim. He plays with an edge and will step to any team messing with Anaheim's young stars. But the 34-year-old could make less of an impact in the year ahead than he did during his debut Ducks campaign.
Troy Terry may face some regression
The Ducks signed Troy Terry to a seven-year contract extension last summer. Anaheim rewarded its star winger with a massive extension after he posted back-to-back 60+ point seasons. In 2023-24, he saw a small decline in his point production. But he remained a significant part of the Ducks' offense.
Terry finished the 2023-24 season second on the team in goals (20) and points (54). Additionally, he finished fourth on the team in Offensive Goals Above Replacement (8.1), according to Evolving Hockey. Adam Henrique finished one spot above him, but he was traded to the Edmonton Oilers at the NHL Trade Deadline.
There is an argument to be made that Terry sees another decline in offensive production, even if it's small. The Ducks forward finished with 4.0 xOGAR in 2023-24. More specifically, his offensive impact at even strength is a worry. Terry had 7.3 Offensive Goals Above Replacement at even strength, but this represents a massive overperformance compared to his xEVO (2.9).
Terry is going to be a fixture in Anaheim's top-six this upcoming season. And he certainly is a valuable piece to this team. However, there is a chance he will experience a bit of regression on the ice as the 2024-25 NHL season unfolds.
