The Nashville Predators are preparing to host the Columbus Blue Jackets to open the season on October 9th. The team was in a stalemate with a restricted free agent, but has now re-signed Luke Evangelista to a two-year $6 million deal. While the stalemate is over between the two sides, it may not be the best deal for both sides.
Evangelista was the No. 42 pick of the 2020 NHL Draft by the Nashville Predators. The Canadian forward saw his first NHL action in the 2022-23 season, playing in 24 games and finding 15 points. He broke out the next season, playing in 80 games, lighting the lamp 16 times and adding 23 helpers. In 2024-25, Evangelista dealt with injuries, but still played in 68 games. In that season, he scored ten times while adding 22 assists.
While he did miss time with an injury, his points per game total remained almost static between the two seasons. Now, Evangelista has extended his contract after being a restricted free agent this past summer.
Luke Evangelista's contract grade
Evangelista was a restricted free agent this summer. His entry-level contract that paid under $900 thousand per year had expired, and he needed a new deal. He got a massive raise in his new contract, going from just under $900 thousand to $3 million per season.
The former second-round pick has been projected as a breakout candidate in the past. He has yet to fully break out as a forward for the Predators. While he scored 32 points in 2024-25, his points per game remained nearly identical in his two full seasons. Regardless, his advanced statistics show some improvement.
His individual point percentage jumped nearly 20 percentage points in 2024-25. Still, other areas showed a need for improvement. His high-danger chance creation rate dropped while his shooting percentage also struggled. Overall, he is getting paid on par with a third-line forward, and that is the production that the forward has put up so far.
There is a positive in that this is a bridge deal, and tripling pay is always a solid situation. This may not be the deal Evangelista was hoping for, but it still gives him fair value for the next two seasons. If Evangelista can prove he is a top-level forward in the next two years, he will be up for a massive payday, but until then, he is getting fair value.
Luke Evangelista contract grade: B+
Nashville Predators contract grade
While the Predators saw the production of Evangleista decline just slightly on a game-by-game basis, most of the team also saw production decline in a difficult season for the team. The forward was seventh on the team in points in 2024-25 while also sitting fifth on the team in points among forwards.
Further, he was one of the best defensive forwards for the team. His minus two plus/minus rating was tied for the best among any player on the team that was on the ice for 50 or more games in 2024-25. He also was solid in his devensive statistics, coming away with a career high in hits per game.
Meanwhile, the contract is already efficient for the Predators. Using the notion that an efficient contract for a forward pays, at most, $100,000 per point of production. That means a forward bringing in $3 million per season needs to produce at least 30 points.
Evangelista has produced 30 or more points in each of the last two seasons, already making the contract as a projected efficient one. Still, he has yet to be a 20-goal producer or score 40 points.
Meanwhile, the contract length is not great for the franchise. He is getting just a two-year deal. The team does not have a lot of long-term contracts for future security. Among the forwards, only recent draft pick Brady Martin, and veterans Filip Forsberg, Steven Stamkos, and Jonathan Marchessault are under contract for the 2027-28 season. Further, Evangelista is a restricted free agent once again in the summer of 2027.
On the positive side, if Evangelista does not blossom into the player that he is expected to be, this is just a two-year deal. Then, the team can choose not to re-sign him as a restricted free agent in the summer of 2027. On the negative side, if he does blossom and Evangelista is a breakout player, the team is in a similar spot in two years with their young player.
Overall, based on the current production, this was a solid deal for the team. It gives them production commensurate with the pay that the team is giving. The number of years given does leave something to be desired, but it also guards against a quick decline for the forward.
Nashville Predators contract grade: C+
