The hockey world is still grappling with the bombshell news that dropped on Tuesday. The Minnesota Wild signed superstar Kirill Kaprizov to a monster eight-year, $136 million contract. This is the largest contract in the history of the NHL. And it will almost certainly have a ripple effect on other negotiations around the league. This includes the talks between the Edmonton Oilers and Connor McDavid.
McDavid has already built himself a Hall of Fame case. He has 1082 career points in just 712 games. He has scored 100+ points in all but two seasons in his career. And he has a Conn Smythe Trophy to his name after becoming just the third player in NHL history to score 40+ points in a single postseason. He also owns the record for most assists in a single postseason.
Kaprizov is certainly a talented player. The other star free agents set to hit the market next July are also game-changing talents. However, McDavid is in a league of his own. Make no mistake, if he reaches free agency, teams will be bidding for the best player in the game. And perhaps the best of his generation.
McDavid has not signed a new contract at this time. This is not a surprise, as he has repeatedly said he will take his time with it. But the Kaprizov extension begs the question of what McDavid's next contract will look like when he does sign it. With this in mind, here is ClutchPoints' updated prediction following Kaprizov's extension.
Oilers' Connor McDavid will sign ‘max' contract
The NHL's contract structures are differen than that of the NBA, where players can sign a max contract based on a variety of factors. However, there is a sort of “max” contract that players can sign in the NHL. This sort of deal is ubiquitous and based on only one thing: salary cap percentage.
The most a player can sign for on any contract is 20% of the current salary cap, according to PuckPedia. McDavid is a free agent at the end of this season, so we need to look at next season's cap numbers. In 2026-27, the salary cap is jumping to $104 million. As a result, the most he can make on his next contract is $20.8 million.
The Wild were in a bit of a no-win situation with Kaprizov. In many ways, they had no choice to sign him at whatever price. He is their franchise. Minnesota goes as far as he does. This is evident any time he's not in the lineup, which has happened with some regularity due to his injury issues.
At the same time, he's not a $17 million player. He has one season with more than 100 points. And, as mentioned, he has struggled with injuries in recent seasons. Kaprizov is still worth a sizeable chunk of change. But if he's getting $17 million, it sets the market rather high for star level talent.
McDavid is the most talented player in the NHL. He is a proven leader, a playoff performer, and one of the best point producers in the league. He was already worth the max cap hit before this deal. However, this cements his claim to that sort of payday.
In saying this, it's hard to imagine McDavid receiving the sort of term Kaprizov does unless he shaves a few million off. This is certainly possible, especially if Edmonton wins the Stanley Cup this season. This sort of trade off is part of the reason McDavid is taking his time with this process.
In the end, the money will win out. McDavid won't get the term, but he should sign for the maximum $20.8 million cap hit. Whether this is with the Oilers remains to be seen. Either way, whoever signs him is signing the best player in the game, which is a major boost to their Stanley Cup chances.
Prediction: Connor McDavid's next contract will be a four-year deal worth $83.2 million
