The Pittsburgh Penguins have exceeded expectations throughout the regular season. While many of the league's top insiders thought the Penguins would find themselves near the bottom of the NHL's Metropolitan Division this season, they have been inside the playoff structure throughout all year.
Much of that is due to the hot start the team had this season. Unheralded head coach Dan Muse has been able to cobble together a productive lineup and superstar Sidney Crosby has once again been the best and most dependable player on the team. While the Penguins don't have the all-around talent they once did in their championship years, the 2025-26 Penguins have been of the hardest-working and most opportunistic teams the franchise has had in many years.
As good and dependable as they have been, nothing is assured as far as the playoffs are concerned. As they prepare for their Monday night game on the road against the New York Islanders, the Penguins find themselves in third place in the Metropolitan Division with 88 points. They have compiled a 36-21-16 record, and that puts them one point behind the second-place Islanders.
They also have the same number of points as the Columbus Blue Jackets, who sit in the No. 2 Wild Card spot. That's the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference and the Ottawa Senators, Detroit Red Wings and the Philadelphia Flyers are close behind.
The Penguins could end up in one of the Wild Card spots or miss the playoffs entirely if they play poorly in the final nine games of the regular season.
If they make the playoffs, there are several spots they may want to avoid.
Penguins have could go up against formidable Lightning
If the Penguins finish out of the top three in the Metropolitan Division and in one of the two Wild Card spots, they could face the Tampa Bay Lightning in the opening round of the playoffs.
That's a scenario the Penguins would want to avoid at all costs. The Hurricanes and Lightning both have 98 points and are in a battle for the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference. The Lightning have the lead in the battle at this specific moment even though both teams have 46-21-6 records. Tampa Bay would get the No. 1 spot because it has 37 wins in the regulation 60 minutes while the Hurricanes have 33.
If the Penguins fall to the No. 8 spot in the playoff structure, they would have to face the Lightning. That's a formidable assignment, but it's one the Penguins would have to play despite a serious talent gap.
The Lightning have Nikita Kucherov and Jake Guentzel at the top of their scoring list and they form a formidable duo. Kucherov leads the league in scoring with 40 goals and 81 assists for 121 points, while Guentzel is a sharpshooter with 35 goals and 80 points. The Lightning also have a strong supporting cast in Brandon Hagel, Darren Raddysh and elusive Brayden Point along with one of the league's best goaltenders in Andrei Vasilevskiy.
The Penguins have a few solid weapons in Crosby (28 goals, 64 points), defenseman Erik Karlsson (13 goals, 60 points), Bryan Rust (26 goals, 59 points) and Anthony Mantha (27 goals, 54 points), but they don't matchup with the Lightning in overall talent.
Nevertheless, the Penguins have won eight of the last 14 meetings against Tampa Bay. Muse's team would have some confidence in this matchup.
Penguins want to avoid facing the Hurricanes
While the matchup with the Lightning would be a major challenge, facing the Hurricanes in the first round would look like the end of the line for the Penguins.
Carolina has a major edge on Pittsburgh, and they have won six of the last seven games in the series. The Penguins have played the Hurricanes fairly tough this season as two of the games have extended beyond regulation, but the Hurricanes have won both of them.
The chances are that Crosby, Karlsson and Evgeni Malkin could stand up for the Penguins against the Canes, but their depth players are not as productive as Carolina's. That could end up being the difference in the series.
Head coach Rod Brind'Amour has one of the fastest skating teams in the league and the Hurricanes have grown into one of the most consistent teams as a result.
Sebastian Aho has scored 25 goals and handed out 49 assists for a team-leading 72 points. Seth Jarvis has a wicked shot and is very effective around the net. He has added 30 goals and 32 assists. Add in Andrei Svechnikov and Nikolaj Ehlers and Brind'Amour has a group of dependable players.
The Penguins would need goaltender Stuart Skinner to play an exceptional series for the Penguins to have a chance against the Canes, and that may not be possible. The Hurricanes are the nightmare matchup for the Penguins in this year's Stanley Cup playoffs.
