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The Philadelphia Phillies travel west to take on the San Diego Padres in Game 1 of the NLCS tonight. Zack Wheeler is the starter for the visiting Phillies, while Yu Darvish will take the mound for the home Padres. The first pitch is slated for 8:03 ET. Below we continue our MLB odds series with a Phillies-Padres prediction and pick.
For Philadelphia, Zack Wheeler will make his third postseason start of the year as he kicks off the NLCS. He'd previously started one game a piece in the Wild Card and Divisional series'. In 12 1/3 innings, Wheeler is 1-1 but has given up just 6 hits. He shut out the Cardinals but allowed 3 runs to the Braves. During the regular season, Wheeler amassed a 12-7 record to the tune of a 2.82 ERA. Wheeler pitched once against San Diego in the regular season. He threw 7 scoreless innings, picking up the win while striking out 7 Padres hitters.
On the home side, Yu Darvish will also make his third start of the postseason. Darvish is 2-0 this postseason and has allowed just 4 runs. He gave up just a single run in his Wild Card win over the Mets but faced more difficulty in the Divisional series win over the Dodgers. In 5 innings Darvish allowed 3 runs thanks to 7 runs and 2 walks. All 3 Dodgers runs came via the long ball as Darvish surrendered 3 solo home runs in the eventual win. Darvish had an excellent regular season. The thirty-six-year-old went 16-8 with a 3.10 ERA and 197 strikeouts. His 0.95 WHIP was 4th in the MLB. Across 2 regular season starts against the Phillies, Darvish went 1-0. He allowed just 3 runs in his 13 innings of work against Philadelphia while striking out 14.
Here are the Phillies-Padres MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NLCS Odds: Phillies-Padres Odds
Philadelphia Phillies: -1.5 (+176)
San Diego Padres: +1.5 (-215)
Over: 7 (+100)
Under: 7 (-122)
Why The Phillies Could Cover The Spread
Philadelphia enters tonight's series opener fresh off a 3-1 series victory over their NL East rivals the Atlanta Braves. Despite placing third in the NL East this season, the Phillies are the last division team standing. Before defeating the Braves, the 6-seeded Phillies eliminated the St. Louis Cardinals in quick fashion – a 2-0 series sweep. They were dominant in their final two games against Atlanta, outscoring the braves 17-4 in those games. Philadelphia held the advantage over the Padres in the regular season, winning the season series 4-3.
If you're looking for star power, this series has plenty of it. But as far as postseason production, Phillies DH Bryce Harper may stand alone… at least this year. Harper has been on an absolute terror this postseason. He's gone 10/23 in his six games. Of those 10 hits, 3 have gone for doubles and 3 have gone over the fence for a home run. Harper is leading the Phillies in every statistical category this postseason and is one of the few players in baseball who can single-handily carry a playoff series.
In Wheeler's last 11 starts, the Phillies have won 7 games. However, they've provided just 3 runs of support in the 4 losses. Wheeler has been tremendous of late. If he can continue his strong play and the Phillies can continue to get this level of offense from Harper and second baseman Jean Segura (.389 postseason average), the Phillies could find themselves outright winning tonight, let alone covering the spread.
Why The Padres Could Cover The Spread
The Padres, too, played underdog and eliminated their division rival in the divisional round after they bested the Los Angeles Dodgers 3-1. After dropping the series opener, San Diego won three straight games against LA. Prior to their upset over the Dodgers, the Padres played spoiler to another 100-win team when they beat the Mets 2-1.
Despite entering the playoffs as the 5th seed, the Padres have a roster configuration rivaling anyone in the league. The big names, of course, are Manny Machado and Juan Soto. Machado has been as advertised in the postseason. After hitting .298 with 32 home runs and 102 RBI in the regular season, the third baseman hasn't missed a beat in the postseason. He's batting .296 with 2 home runs and 5 RBI in 7 postseason games.
Soto, on the other hand, has struggled somewhat. The outfielder is batting just .250 and is still looking for his first home run. There is room for optimism in Game 1, though. Soto has extensive experience against starter Zack Wheeler going back to his Nationals' playing days. Soto batted .289 and drew 11 walks in 38 at-bats against Wheeler. If he can channel some of his prior success against the Phillies success into this series… look out!
Final Phillies-Padres Prediction & Pick
Both teams will have had plenty of rest to get ready for this one and I don't see it being more than a 1-run game either way. With how well the Padres looked in the last three games against Dodgers, it's hard to envision them losing by more than a run, if at all.
Final Phillies-Padres Prediction & Pick: San Diego Padres +1.5 (-215)
