The ACC Coastal has earned a reputation for being one of the most chaotic divisions in college football. While Florida State and, more recently, Clemson have dominated the ACC Atlantic, no team in the Coastal has dominated in the same way. Every team in the division has won it over the past decade, and the last repeat champion was Virginia Tech in 2010 and 2011. With defending ACC champion Pitt struggling this season, it appears that streak will continue for another season, with North Carolina football looking like the favorite.
The division has turned into a bloodbath, with every team except for one having at least two conference losses. That one exception is North Carolina, which stands at 6-1 and 3-0 in ACC play.
Meanwhile, Miami, the preseason favorite in the division, has struggled immensely this season. The Hurricanes have limped out to a 3-4 start and sit at 1-2 in conference play. Mario Cristobal's first year in Miami has not gone according to plan, and the Hurricanes are in jeopardy of missing a bowl game.
Despite their struggles this season, the Hurricanes are still technically in the running for the division. However, the Tar Heels and many other factors stand in their way. Let's go over a few reasons why North Carolina will win the ACC Coastal over Miami.
3. North Carolina has a much better offense
North Carolina not only has the best offense in the ACC, but one of the best in college football. The Tar Heels lead the conference with 506 total yards, 326.7 passing yards and 41.7 points per game. They also rank top 10 in the country in all of those stats as well.
On the other hand, Miami's offense has not been nearly as good, especially in conference play. The Hurricanes average 445.4 total yards and 315.3 passing yards per game, ranking third and second in the ACC, respectively. The main struggle for the Hurricanes has been scoring, as their 29.3 points per game rank eighth in the conference.
Keep in mind that Miami's stats are heavily inflated from a season-opening win over FCS Bethune-Cookman. In that game, the Hurricanes had a season-high 70 points and 586 total yards. Since then, they have only scored 30 or more points twice, and their most in a conference game is just 24.
North Carolina has also played its share of easy opponents, including Florida A&M and Georgia State. However, the Tar Heels have still been able to score against conference foes. They put up 41 and 38 points against Virginia Tech and Duke, respectively, while the Hurricanes scored 20 and 21 points against those same teams.
Miami's offense has great potential, but it has struggled to play up to that potential for most of the season. North Carolina's offense has played much better this season, which is why it has the better record.
2. Tar Heels have an easier schedule
Both North Carolina and Miami have very similar schedules to close out the college football season. They both play ACC Coastal foes Pitt, Virginia and Georgia Tech. Both teams host Pitt, while Miami hosts Virginia and travels to Georgia Tech, and the opposite is true for North Carolina.
Where their schedules differ is in the ACC Atlantic opponents they face. The Tar Heels play two in-state foes, traveling to Wake Forest and hosting NC State to close out the season. The Hurricanes play host to archrival Florida State, but also travel to face Clemson.
The Tar Heels' slate isn't easy, but they should be the favorite against NC State and they can at least keep up with Wake Forest. The Hurricanes' game against Florida State should be a close one, but upsetting Clemson in Death Valley is a near-impossible task. The Hurricanes can't afford to drop any more games, and a road match against the Tigers is likely too much to overcome.
1. UNC has already beaten Miami
The biggest point in the Tar Heels' favor is that they have already beaten the Hurricanes. These two teams met in Miami on Oct. 8, with North Carolina pulling out a 27-24 win. It may not have been the prettiest or most impressive win, but the Tar Heels accomplished what they needed to do.
Now, that win has huge implications as the season enters its home stretch. As if a two-game deficit wasn't enough to overcome, the Hurricanes are now also on the losing end of a crucial tiebreaker.
Essentially, Miami needs North Carolina to drop three games to pass them in the standings. That's the absolute best-case scenario, and doesn't account for other teams in the division getting hot towards the end of the season.
Altogether, there are just two many hurdles for the Hurricanes to overcome to win the division. If the Tar Heels continue to play well, they should coast to a division title.
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