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Novak Djokovic takes on Lorenzo Musetti at the French Open. Our French Open odds series has our Djokovic Musetti prediction and pick. Find out how to watch Djokovic Musetti.
The 2024 French Open is about to get very interesting — not that the first few days weren't compelling, but the level of drama is about to increase markedly. Novak Djokovic is the No. 1 seed at this tournament, but he is not the clear-cut favorite. He has been sluggish this year, perhaps because he has turned 37 years old and might be losing that extra half-step of speed which separates the very best tennis players from really good players. Djokovic is still a really good player, but his greatness is not the guarantee it was as recently as last year, when he won three major titles and lost the Wimbledon final against Carlos Alcaraz. Djokovic was 27-1 at the four major tournaments. He came very close to the Grand Slam. It wasn't the first time he went 27-1 in a calendar year at the majors, either. The fact that Djokovic looks significantly less imposing than he did in 2023 is surprising. It's not a shock that older age is taking its toll; the surprise is how quickly this has happened in 2024. Is it temporary, though, or are we seeing consistent erosion of Djokovic's capabilities, such that he will never dominate the sport again? It's an interesting question, and we don't know the answer.
This French Open, however, might give us more information and clarity on the matter.
Rafael Nadal is probably about to retire from tennis. Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner are very solid top-three players, but they have both had recent injuries which prevents them from being clearly superior to Djokovic. The 24-time major champion has a good chance of winning this tournament, but he's not towering above the field the way he has in the past.
Now comes a match against Lorenzo Musetti, which is fascinating for reasons tennis observers understand well.
In the 2021 French Open, Musetti won the first two sets against Djokovic in tiebreakers. Djokovic's run at a major title was in jeopardy. However, Djokovic calmly regrouped and won in five sets. Technically, the match didn't reach its conclusion (4-0 in the fifth) when Musetti retired. What was notable is that Musetti won just one game over the final two and a half sets. He got rattled. He collapsed as soon as Djokovic turned the match around. It is clear that Musetti has the talent to make this a contest, but it's also clear that Djokovic has the toughness and discipline Musetti lacks. Can Musetti play his best tennis for five full sets? Can he hold his nerve? These are the important questions to consider in Paris.
Here are the Novak Djokovic-Lorenzo Musetti French Open odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
French Open Odds: Novak Djokovic-Lorenzo Musetti Odds
Game spread
Djokovic -6.5: -122
Musetti +6.5: -110
Money line
Djokovic: -610
Musetti: +400
To win first set
Djokovic: -300
Musetti: +225
Total Games In Match
Over 34.5: -120
Under 34.5: -110
Djokovic over 19.5 games: -122
Djokovic under 19.5 games: -110
Musetti over 14.5 games: -120
Musetti under 14.5 games: -110
How To Watch Novak Djokovic vs Lorenzo Musetti
TV: Tennis Channel and/or NBC
Stream: Tennis Channel Plus and/or Peacock
Time: 2:30 p.m. ET / 11:30 a.m. PT
*Watch Novak Djokovic-Lorenzo Musetti LIVE on fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why Novak Djokovic Could Cover The Spread
The spread of 6.5 games for this match means that Djokovic needs to win each set by an average of more than two games. A 6-4, 6-4, 6-3 scoreline is a cover for Djokovic. Based on Musetti's widely-known lack of mental toughness, it's not unrealistic to think Djokovic can pull this off.
Why Lorenzo Musetti Could Cover The Spread
Djokovic will likely win, but Musetti can do what he did in the first two sets of the 2021 French Open meeting between the two players: force tiebreakers. If Musetti loses 7-6, 7-6, 6-2, he still covers. That might be the scenario for Musetti backers to consider.
Final Novak Djokovic-Lorenzo Musetti Prediction & Pick
Djokovic's rust is counterbalanced by Musetti's lack of mental toughness. It's a match to enjoy as a fan, not as a bettor.
Final Novak Djokovic-Lorenzo Musetti Prediction & Pick: Musetti +6.5 games
