Ranked 22nd in the nation, Chris Beard and the Ole Miss Rebels travel to Baton Rouge to take on Matt McMahon’s LSU Tigers in this SEC matchup. Below we will continue our college basketball odds series with an Ole Miss-LSU prediction and pick.

After suffering their first loss of the season, and a brutal one at that, Chris Beard and the Rebels have found their footing. Two straight double-digit victories at home were exactly what the doctor ordered to rebuild the Ole Miss confidence. Led by Matthew Murrell, Ole Miss eclipsed 100 points for the first time since December 2013. The sharpshooter is coming off a phenomenal week (23.5ppg, 9-18 3PT). 

Matt McMahon’s bunch is coming off a tough loss against the SEC’s best, Auburn. Ever since the second half of that Texas game last month, the Tigers have looked like a new team. This is a highly experienced LSU team that only plays three underclassmen in total. Led by graduate transfer Jordan Wright, LSU is starting to flirt with the NCAA tournament bubble conversation. 

Two of the older teams in the conference here–expect a closely contested scrap in Baton Rouge.

Here are the college basketball odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

College Basketball Odds: Ole Miss-LSU Odds

Ole Miss: +1.5 (-106)

Moneyline: +104

LSU: -1.5 (-114)

Moneyline: -125

Over: 149.5 (-115)

Under: 149.5 (-105)

How to Watch Ole Miss vs. LSU 

Time: 7:00 pm ET/4:00 pm PT

TV: SECN

Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)

Why Ole Miss Will Cover The Spread

Initially, the recent conference results suggest that LSU’s weakness offensively plays directly into the strength of the Ole Miss defense. LSU has shot just 28.6% from three in SEC play while shooting the second-least threes. So, the Tigers are not making many threes and not shooting many either. Ole Miss has the second-highest block rate in the nation to go along with a top 100 two-point defense. After allowing Tennessee to shoot 11-30 (36.7%) from long range, the Rebels held Florida and Vanderbilt to a combined 9-35 (25.7%).

While the addition of Jalen Cook at point guard has opened up the floor for perimeter players like Jordan Wright, Cook has really struggled in SEC play. In the past three games, Cook has four assists to eleven turnovers including a zero assist five turnover game against Auburn. Now, Cook is faced with an Ole Miss defense that forces turnovers at a top-25 rate nationally. Based on what Chris Beard said, the Rebels just played their most complete defensive performance of the season, Ole Miss should be able to make life difficult for Cook.

Lastly, this is an Ole Miss defense that has defended without fouling all year. For an LSU offense that only gets about 27% of their points from three, they rely on the free throw line for a large portion of their points. The nation’s leading shot blocker, 7-5 Jamarion Sharp, has such a presence that opposing teams attack the rim at a lower rate than they normally would. As a result, shooting fewer free throws. With how poorly LSU has shot from three, the Ole Miss defense should be in position for another solid performance. 

Why LSU Will Cover The Spread

Glaringly, Ole Miss is one of the worst rebounding teams in the country. In three SEC games, the Rebels have allowed an average of 15.3 offensive rebounds per game. This is a deep LSU frontcourt that has averaged 11 offensive rebounds per game, including games against Texas A&M and Auburn. LSU should have a clear path to another double-digit offensive rebounding night. 

LSU’s biggest defensive weakness is their foul rate. Just last game Auburn shot 31 free throw attempts. Through three games, LSU has given up the most free throws in the SEC. Luckily, Ole Miss is not a team that gets to the line a lot. Ole Miss has not attempted over 20 free throws in SEC play. In summary, LSU’s biggest defensive weakness will not be exploited by Ole Miss to the levels recent opponents have. 

Lastly, we have seen this Ole Miss team struggle on the road. In Ole Miss’ three true road games, they beat Temple by one point, UCF by two points, and lost to Tennessee by 26. LSU does not defend like Tennessee but still, Ole Miss has not proven yet that they can play at their best away from Oxford. 

Final Ole Miss-LSU Prediction & Pick

Some may look at Ole Miss’ three true road performances and pick the home team based on those numbers alone. While I understand the thought process, there is more to the story than just that. Often the issue is the offensive numbers being significantly worse on the road compared to at home but that is not the case here. Ole Miss has shot a combined 22-49 (44.9%) from three in true road games.

With the offense not dropping off, and Ole Miss coming off their most complete defensive performance of the season, the Rebels are in a great spot for a road win.

Final Ole Miss-LSU Prediction & Pick: Ole Miss ML +104