The Baltimore Orioles and Tampa Bay Rays will have an intriguing pitching matchup on Friday night, as Orioles starter Zach Eflin will take on his former team after they traded him at the deadline. The Orioles are in a battle with the New York Yankees for first in the American League East, and the Rays will try to play spoiler. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with an Orioles-Rays prediction and pick.
Orioles-Rays Projected Starters
Zach Eflin vs. Zack Littel
Zach Eflin (7-7) with a 4.05 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP.
Last Start: @ Guardians, 6 1/3 IP, 3 SO, 5 H, 1 BB, 2 ER, 1 HR
2024 Road Splits: (3-5) with a 5.10 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP.
Zack Littel (5-7) with a 4.06 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP.
Last Start: @ Astros, 5 2/3 IP, 3 SO, 4 H, 1 BB, 1 ER, 1 HR
2024 Home Splits: (3-3) with a 3.00 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP.
Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Orioles-Rays Odds
Baltimore Orioles: -1.5 (+126)
Moneyline: -134
Tampa Bay Rays: +1.5 (-152)
Moneyline: +114
Over: 7.5 (-115)
Under: 7.5 (-105)
How to Watch Orioles vs. Rays
Time: 6:50 PM ET/3:50 PM PT
TV: MASN2, Bally Sports Network
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why The Orioles Will Cover The Spread/Win
Usually, the road splits for a pitcher don't mean much because of different park factors. For example, a pitcher could have two road games in Colorado, which inflates their ERA, but it won't affect them as much if the game is in Oakland. The good thing about this game is we can zero in on Zach Eflin's home splits to determine his outlook. Eflin was 4-2 with a 2.52 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP at Tropicana Field this season before the Rays traded him to the Orioles. Despite having an elevated flyball rate, his numbers were spectacular in the dome compared to any other ballpark.
Will that carry over in an Orioles uniform? The Rays bats have been abysmal this season, so there's a chance he will be even better in this matchup. The Rays are batting just .232 with a .311 on-base percentage this season. They're also averaging four runs/nine.
The Orioles should be able to handle this game if they can maintain their pace from the last ten games. Baltimore batted .275 with a .360 on-base percentage over that span, with 6.5 runs/nine. It's been a short time since Eflin was their teammate, but they should be ready to help him win this rivalry game.
Why The Rays Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Orioles' pitching has to be a concern as the playoffs approach. They are an elite offensive team, but some of their guys are struggling and the pitching hasn't been able to bail them out. Baltimore will need their pitchers to figure it out as they finish the season playing some good offensive teams in the American League. The Orioles risk falling out of the playoff race if they don't.
The Rays have an advantage in one area, and it's an important one. The Orioles bullpen has been average this season and struggled recently with a 4.70 ERA over their last three games. Meanwhile, the Rays bullpen continues to be lights out, owning a 3.13 team ERA and a 2.10 mark over their last three.
Final Orioles-Rays Prediction & Pick
The Orioles must keep winning to keep pace with the Yankees, but their bullpen is scary in this matchup. Tropicana Field has been a house of horrors for contending teams in the past, but if there's one man who knows how to play at this park, it's Eflin. Take the Orioles to win one for their new starting pitcher in his return game.
Click here for more betting news and predictions
Final Orioles-Rays Prediction & Pick: Orioles ML (-134)
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