The Tampa Bay Rays wrap up a three-game series with a the St. Louis Cardinals Thursday night. This game will continue our MLB odds series as we hand out a Rays-Cardinals prediction and pick. We will also let you know how to watch the game.
Rays-Cardinals Projected Starters
Shane Baz vs. Kyle Gibson
Shane Baz (0-1) with a 3.60 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 25 innings pitched, 24K/10BB, .258 oBA
Last Start: at Houston Astros: No Decision, 5.1 innings, 6 hits, 2 runs, 1 walk, 5 strikeouts
2024 Road Splits: 3 starts, 3.07 ERA, 1.64 WHIP, 14.2 innings pitched, 12K/7BB, .293 oBA
Kyle Gibson (7-4) with a 4.04 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 120.1 innings pitched, 109K/47BB, .247 oBA
Last Start: at Chicago Cubs: No Decision, 7 innings, 5 hits, 4 runs, 1 walk, 7 strikeouts
2024 Home Splits: 10 starts, 4.92 ERA, 1.64 WHIP, 53 innings pitched, 38K/24BB, .297 oBA
Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Rays-Cardinals Odds
Tampa Bay Rays: +1.5 (-196)
Moneyline: +108
St. Louis Cardinals: -1.5 (+162)
Moneyline: -126
Over: 8 (-115)
Under: 8 (-105)
How to Watch Rays vs. Cardinals
Time: 7:15 PM ET/4:15 PM PT
TV: Bally Sports Sun, Bally Sports Midwest
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why The Rays Will Cover The Spread/Win
Shane Baz has been pitching well since returning to the big league mound. He has not allowed more than three earned runs in any of his starts, and he has pitched against some very good teams. He has been able to pitch well against the New York Yankees twice, the Houston Astros and the Texas Rangers. The Cardinals are not nearly as good a team as the teams Baz has faced already. Baz should be able to continue pitching well, and help lead the Rays to a win.
Tampa Bay should be able to do some damage offensively. Gibson allows a high opponent batting average, and he is not a very hard thrower. Along with that, Gibson allows a decently high barrel and hard hit percentage. Tampa Bay needs to be locked in at the plate in this one. Expect the Rays to put up three or four runs on Gibson in this game.
Why The Cardinals Will Cover The Spread/Win
St. Louis needs Gibson to be good on the mound. There are a few things he tends to do well. That includes inducing weak contact, getting opponents to whiff, and forcing ground balls. If opposing teams are not careful, they will ground out weakly multiple times off Gibson. The Rays are at the bottom of the MLB in batting average, slugging percentage, and hard hit percentage. Gibson just needs to stick to his gameplan, and the Cardinals will win.
The Cardinals have a pretty tough matchup going up against Baz, but Baz has gotten a bit lucky. Baz has an xERA that is two runs higher than his actual ERA, and his xBA is 30 points higher than his actual. The numbers say Baz has had luck on his side, and that is bound to run out soon. If the Cardinals can put good swings on the ball, they will win this game.
Final Rays-Cardinals Prediction & Pick
This should turn into a pretty good game. I am going to take the Rays to win, though. Shane Baz is throwing the ball well, and the Rays will feed off that at the plate. I will be taking the Rays moneyline Thursday night.
Click here for more betting news and predictions
Final Rays-Cardinals Prediction & Pick: Rays ML (+108)
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