The evolution of the running back position has changed drastically over the past five seasons in fantasy football. Once holding down at least 75 percent of all first-round selections, you are now lucky to see 40 percent of the first-round picks not be a wide receiver.
With that shift in draft strategy comes a new approach for how to draft running backs. On one hand, you can continue to be the robust-RB drafter, selecting them early and relying on mid-round wide receiver value to help level your team. Or on the other hand, you can lean into the new-age of draft strategy and focus more on receivers, instead letting your running back room turn into an RB2 group, hoping that one hits and jumps into that every week starter category.
Whichever path you decide to follow when building out your roster, not all running backs are valued the same, especially in 2024. While there are plenty of undervalued options that will offer up great return on investments, there are just as many overvalued options that could bury your roster.
Let’s take a look at five options that, based on situation, offense, age, or anything else, shouldn’t be drafted as high as they have been so far.
All data in this article regarding average draft position (ADP), player stats, and league scoring comes from the Sleeper platform. For all intensive purposes, a 10-team, point-per-reception (PPR) league format was followed for all player rankings.
Aaron Jones
It’s far from a controversial name that kicks off our overvalued running backs list, but Aaron Jones fits the criteria of our list fairly well. Joining the Minnesota Vikings this offseason after the Green Bay Packers moved on, Jones joins an offense that will be facing an uphill battle this year.
With J.J. McCarthy out for the season, Sam Darnold will be taking the keys to the offense. While Justin Jefferson should still be able to get his, the pending Jordan Addison suspension combined with T.J. Hockenson still recovering from his last 2023 ACL injury, and this offense as a whole will be rough.
Jones was solid, if unspectacular, in his final year with Green Bay. Limited to 11 games due to injury, the 29-year-old finished as the RB37 last season, producing his lowest yardage totals since his rookie season.
While only Ty Chandler is behind Jones in the backfield, Jones is not getting any younger, and Chandler will likely command more work as the season progresses. Currently coming off the board around pick 58, Jones is going ahead of the likes of Amari Cooper, Tee Higgins, and James Conner, three players that should finish higher than Jones and earn bigger workloads than the new Vikings back, so shy away in the sixth round.
Zamir White
One of the most-talked-about running backs of the offseason has been Zamir White, who has taken on the lead back role for the Las Vegas Raiders. With Josh Jacobs departing for Green Bay, White received no real competition this offseason – so what gives?
White’s inexperience (121 career carries) in the NFL speaks volumes for his fantasy football value, and his current ADP of around pick 82 is a bit steep. While he does have command of the backfield and looks to be in line for goal-line work, recent comments from head coach Antonio Pierce don’t paint a positive picture for White’s inclusion in the passing game.
If White is mostly relegated to rushing attempts, that absolutely limits his ceiling, not making him worth a single-digit-round pick.
De’Von Achane
Probably one of the most polarizing fantasy football players last season was rookie running back De’Von Achane. Taking the world by storm with the Miami Dolphins, Achane’s value skyrocketed into drafts this year, with a top-25 ADP.
The type of volume Achane will see in the Dolphins offense in 2024 should be even more than what he received last year, and you always try to chase volume in fantasy football. But finishing as the RB24 last year somehow elevated Achane to pick 25, going ahead of Brandon Aiyuk, Isiah Pacheco, and Mike Evans, among others.
The hype train for Achane has hit its peak, and you should be very careful drafting him. While he projects for another big year, it’s hard to project the kind of season his ADP is projecting.
Devin Singletary
It’s tough to say that a player with an ADP of 99 is an overvalued option, as many players at that point in the draft are more dart throws than sure things. But there are plenty of concerning signs with the New York Giants offense and running back room that cloud the impact Devin Singletary can have this year.
Having left the Houston Texans for the Giants, Singletary was added to replace the departing Saquon Barkley, who left for the Philadelphia Eagles. Coming off an RB32 season that saw Singletary find the end zone only four times, the 26-year-old joins a team with a worse offensive line and an intriguing spark plug rookie behind him.
Purdue rookie Tyrone Tracy has been looked at as a threat all offseason, as his receiving game chops should earn him plenty of playing time for a team that will likely be playing from behind often. Outside of Malik Nabers, there is no true trusted receiving option for Daniel Jones, so Tracy, who is a converted wide receiver, could fill that role too.
All of this is to say that Singletary, while likely starting the season earning the majority of touches, should see his role decline over the year, making it tough to draft him where he currently is being selected.
Rachaad White
It was an RB8 finish for Rachaad White in 2023, easily setting career highs in all major rushing and receiving categories. But only finding the end zone nine total times is concerning, and those numbers aren’t necessarily projected to improve this season.
Volume-based efficiency is fine in fantasy football, but that style is difficult to repeatedly support RB1 numbers. Plus, with Dave Canales having departed for the Carolina Panthers, the passing attack (and subsequently White’s role in it) will change, likely impacting White’s impact.
Unless White improves his red-zone efficiency and doesn’t give up valuable work to rookie Bucky Irving, he could justify his ADP of 38. But all signs point towards White taking a step back and not justifying his fourth-round price tag.
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