Most NFL coaches break the season up into fourths, with every four games counting as a quarter of the season. Win 75% of your games in each quarter and you’re looking at a 12-4 regular season record, which would likely lead to a division title if not a first round bye. It depends on the year, but the quarters system is a tried mindset for success in the NFL. It puts wins and losses into perspective.
We don’t know a ton about new Green Bay Packers head coach Matt LaFleur yet, but it’s a pretty easy guarantee that he’ll be looking at his inaugural season as head coach and breaking it down into quarters. Of course, there’s the “one game at a time” mantra and that’s certainly the micro-mindset every good head coach needs, but in general, you have to imagine LaFleur is going to judge his success with the Packers four games at a time.
Of course, challenge one in this first four-game stretch for the Packers is the Chicago Bears to start the season. This is a game that’s going to be full of hype for both teams, and the Packers and Bears have the added bonus of being the only game in the league on Thursday night – thus everyone will be watching. Aaron Rodgers will have a chance to start his “comeback tour” under the bright spotlights against a team he has had plenty of terrific moments against – including last season’s miracle win in Week 1. Chicago is going to be good this season – really good in fact, but there are reasons to believe in a 1-0 start from the Packers.
In fact, there’s plenty of reason to believe that the Packers will start this season strong in general. Heck, Pete Prisco of CBS Sports thinks the Packers will win the Super Bowl, but let’s scale it down a bit and take a look at the first few games and examine why a hot start is certainly a possibility for Green Bay.
Week 1: At Chicago Bears
The Bears are coming off of an NFC North title, but there is reason to believe this is a team primed to take a step back. Their defense was other-worldly last season with the addition of Khalil Mack, but it has gone through some changes.
Adrian Amos is a Packer and he was replaced by Ha Ha Clinton-Dix. Any Packers fan know that’s a win for Green Bay. Cornerback Bryce Callahan and his two interceptions, two sacks, six passes defended, six tackles for loss, and five quarterback hits are also out the door. Callahan signed with the Denver Broncos and was replaced by Buster Skrine – another downgrade for Chicago. Speaking of Denver, perhaps the biggest downgrade for Chicago was losing all-world defensive coordinator Vic Fangio to the Broncos’ head coaching vacancy. Chuck Pagano is a good guy, but the Bears downgraded there as well.
Offensively for Chicago, Mitch Trubisky still has to prove himself. Can he do so against a Green Bay defense that has been revamped with a focus on getting after the passer and creating turnovers? It’s a homer take, for sure, but this writer is betting on Green Bay’s defense in that match up.
Week 2: Vs. Minnesota Vikings
In this scenario, we’re expecting a 1-0 start from the Packers who will be red-hot at home against the Minnesota Vikings. Again, is Kirk Cousins really the quarterback you’d take against a defense that should be able to get great pressure and has ball-hawks in the secondary? With Kevin King hopefully still healthy, the Packers may have one of the best secondary’s in football. King, Jaire Alexander, Amos, and Darnell Savage should be able to slow down Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs between the four of them. If it comes down to quarterbacks needing to win a big game, it’s safe to assume Rodgers can do more damage to Minnesota’s defense – which has stayed stagnant – than what Cousins can do to Green Bay’s.
Week 3: Vs. Denver Broncos
This is another home game and the aforementioned Fangio will be bringing what should end up being a pretty tough defense into town. With that said, Green Bay’s defense should actually come away in this contest looking as the better unit, if only because Denver projects to be absolutely putrid on offense.
Joe Flacco is Denver’s new quarterback, mind you. The same quarterback who was benched and then traded away from Baltimore in favor of a quarterback who’s throwing accuracy is questionable in Lamar Jackson. Meanwhile, Emmanuel Sanders is really Denver’s only offensive threat to speak of. That is, unless you’re afraid of Courtland Sutton or Phillip Lindsay.
Let’s count this as 3-0 for Green Bay.
Week 4: Vs. Philadelphia Eagles
This could end up being one of the best matchups of the early NFL season with Carson Wentz bringing a potentially high-flying offense into Lambeau for a Thursday night contest. There are top experts out there that believe the Eagles very well could be the best team in the NFC this season, and that’s a tough point to argue if Wentz is healthy. Still, a healthy Rodgers should be able to go tit for tat with Wentz and worst case scenario, this is an extremely fun game to watch.
Assuming the Eagles are the world-beaters they appear to be, we can pencil in a loss for the Packers here, but would anyone be surprised if Rodgers came through in a big moment against another elite quarterbacks? He's done it in the past and he could do it again.
Win the Quarter: Assuming the first quarter of the season plays out like it did above, the Packers would enter the second quarter of the season with a 3-1 record, and it would not be surprising to see a 4-0 record if everything shakes out the way it has the potential to.
There are a lot of question marks surrounding this team and there have been some doubters, but assuming the offense clicks, the defense lives up to its potential, and Rodgers is back to elite form – look out for the Packers in 2019.
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