The San Diego Padres will complete their three-game series with the Pittsburgh Pirates on Thursday afternoon at PNC Park. These teams are fighting for playoff spots as we share our MLB odds series and make a Padres-Pirates prediction and pick.
Padres-Pirates Projected Starters
Randy Vasquez vs. Luis Ortiz
Randy Vasquez (3-6) with a 4.62 ERA
Last Start: Vasquez was solid in his last outing, going five innings, allowing one earned run and three hits while striking out four and walking two in a no-decision against the Colorado Rockies.
2024 Road Splits: Vasquez has struggled on the road, going 2-3 with a 6.29 ERA over eight starts away from Petco Park.
Luis Ortiz (5-2) with a 3.21 ERA
Last Start: Ortiz labored in his last outing, going 5 1/3 innings, allowing six earned runs, six hits, striking out two, and walking three in a no-decision against the Arizona Diamondbacks.
2024 Home Splits: Ortiz is 2-1 with a 3.68 ERA in 14 combined home appearances.
Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Padres-Pirates Odds
San Diego Padres: -1.5 (+162)
Moneyline: -102
Pittsburgh Pirates: +1.5 (-196)
Moneyline: -116
Over: 8.5 (+100)
Under: 8.5 (-122)
How to Watch Padres vs. Pirates
Time: 12:35 PM ET/9:35 AM PT
TV: MLB Network
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why The Padres Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Padres have been hot lately, as they were 8-2 going into Wednesday's action. Overall, their hitting has remained consistent despite not having one of their best players available.
Fernando Tatis Jr. suffered a stress reaction in his femur on June 21, and there still is no timetable for his return. Regardless, the Padres have persevered and are currently in the top spot in the National League wildcard race. Jurrickson Profar has been a big reason for this, leading the Padres in hits and home runs coming into the day's action. Thus, expect him to play a pivotal part in this game. Luis Arraez remains one of the best acquisitions the Padres had this season. Ultimately, he is a force at the top of the order to get this offense going.
While Xander Bogaerts and Manny Machado remain on the team, they don't pack the punch they once did. Yet, both will continue to contribute to the offense.
Vasquez has struggled recently, with two straight outings without a quality start. Thus, he must find a way to bounce back. When Vasquez comes out of the game, he will turn it over to a bullpen that is 15th in bullpen ERA. Robert Suarez has been excellent in the role, going 6-1 with a 1.44 ERA with 24 saves in 27 chances.
The Padres will cover the spread if their bats can continue to rake and drive some runs across the plate. Then, they need Vasquez to have a good outing on the mound and avoid walking too many hitters.
Why The Pirates Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Pirates have struggled to keep pace this season. Somehow, they came into Wednesday trailing the final wildcard spot by four games. There is hope for the Pirates. But they need their offense to step it up.
Bryan Reynolds is their best player. He leads the Pirates in hits and home runs, so expect him to continue to be the most dangerous hitter in the lineup. Bryan De La Cruz is the new guy in town after the Pirates acquired him. Ultimately, the Pirates hope he can become the power threat he was with the Miami Marlins and help power them to the postseason. Rowdy Tellez has struggled to stay consistent. Yet, he is still a danger to batter the baseball into the seats. Oneil did not play on Tuesday as he was battling an illness. Assuming he returns to this one, expect him to clobber the baseball as he was hitting .300 with three home runs and 12 RBIs over the 15 games before.
Ortiz did not fare well in his last outing, and everything he threw did not register. Therefore, if he wishes to stay in the rotation, there is pressure on him to bounce back and avoid another meltdown. When Ortiz finishes, he will turn it over to a struggling bullpen that ranks just 27th in bullpen ERA. David Bednar is the default closer, going 3-3 with a 5.06 ERA with 20 saves in 23 opportunities.
The Pirates will cover the spread if their lineup springs to life and starts driving in some runners home. Then, they need Ortiz to avoid another letdown.
Final Padres-Pirates Prediction & Pick
The Padres came into Wednesday with a 60-54 mark against the run line, while the Pirates were the best team in baseball at covering the run line. But the Padres are the best in baseball at covering the run line on the road. Meanwhile, the Pirates came into the day with a 28-28 mark against the run line. The Pirates started the series poorly on Tuesday, being unable to drive anything across the plate. Plus, the Padres ate really hot right now. We expect that to continue as the Padres cover the run line.
Click here for more betting news and predictions
Final Padres-Pirates Prediction & Pick: San Diego Padres -1.5 (+162)
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