The Reds travel to south Florida to take on the Miami Marlins Monday night. This game will continue our MLB odds series as we hand out a Reds-Marlins prediction and pick. We will also ley you know how to watch the game.
Reds-Marlins Projected Starters
Nick Martinez vs. Roddery Munoz
Nick Martinez (5-5) with a 3.65 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 79 innings pitched, 63K/10BB, .256 oBA
Last Start: Has not started a game since May 22.
2024 Road Splits: 13 games, 1 start, 2.40 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, 30 innings pitched, 21K/3BB, .177 oBA
Roddery Munoz (2-5) with a 5.45 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 66 innings pitched, 57K/32BB, .236 oBA
Last Start: at Tampa Bay Rays: Win, 5 innings, 4 hits, 2 runs, 1 walk, 7 strikeouts
2024 Home Splits: 6 games, 5 starts, 6.43 ERA, 1.64 WHIP, 28 innings pitched, 23K/17BB, .261 oBA
Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Reds-Marlins Odds
Cincinnati Reds: -1.5 (+122)
Moneyline: -142
Miami Marlins: +1.5 (-146)
Moneyline: +120
Over: 8 (-118)
Under: 8 (-104)
How to Watch Reds vs. Marlins
Time: 6:40 PM ET/3:40 PM PT
TV: Bally Sports Ohio, Bally Sports Florida, ESPN+
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why The Reds Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Reds should be able to get Munoz out of the game early. One thing Munoz does not do well is keep the ball in the zone. His walk rate is in just the 16th percentile in the MLB. He really struggles when it comes to limiting the free passes. If the Reds can stay patient at the plate, and force Munoz in the zone, they should have a good chance at winning the game.
If the Reds are able to force Munoz in the zone, there is a good chance the Reds can put good wood on the ball. Munoz allows a barrel percentage of 13.8 percent. That is in just the first percentile in the MLB. He allows hitters to really hit the ball hard, and the Reds need to take advantage of that. Cincinnati is is not a team that will chase pitches, but they really do not barrel the ball often. If the Reds can actually barrel the ball in this game, they will come out on top.
Why The Marlins Will Cover The Spread/Win
Yes, Munoz has some control issues, and he gets hit around when he is in the zone, but the skill is there. Along with that, the Reds are in the bottom-10 in the MLB in barrel percentage, hard hit percentage, average exit velocity, batting average, and expected slugging percentage. Munoz is facing a team that will play to his strengths if he can limit the walks. With the Reds struggles at the plate, expect Munoz to have one of his better games Monday night.
The Marlins are facing Nick Martinez, who is making his first start in over two months in this game. He might not be fully conditioned to go deep into this game, which will work to their advantage. Along with that, Martinez allows opponents to hit .348 and slug .527 off him when he starts. He has been much better out of the bullpen, so this being a start for him could favor Miami. If Martinez goes back to pitching the way he was when he was starting games, the Marlins should win.
Final Reds-Marlins Prediction & Pick
I would be surprised if this was a lower scoring game. I am expecting both teams to put up four or five runs in this game. With that said, I think the Reds will end up on top. If it comes down to which bullpen can hold the other team off for longer, my answer is the Reds. I will take Cincinnati to win this game straight up.
Click here for more betting news and predictions
Final Reds-Marlins Prediction & Pick: Reds ML (-142)
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